In the lead-up to the recently concluded Haryana assembly elections, anti-incumbency sentiment was expected to surge, fuelled by farmers' protests and other significant issues weighing on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Congress banked heavily on the unrest among farmers, wrestlers' protests, and caste divisions to build a narrative that seemed poised to propel the party to the top of the state's political landscape.
However, the election results told a different story. So, how much impact did the protesting farmers have on the assembly elections? In the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress saw an increase in both the number of seats and vote share in Haryana, largely attributed to the farmers' discontent with the BJP.
Three years ago, when a coalition of peasant organisations successfully forced the rollback of three controversial farm laws, it was perceived as a significant blow to the Narendra Modi-led Union government. The euphoria of this so-called victory among farmer leaders soon transitioned into a political campaign against the BJP. Although their demands, including the legalisation of the Minimum Support Price (MSP), remained a focus, the protests took on an increasingly political tone.
A Mixed Outcome For Farmers
The Haryana assembly results revealed a mixed outcome for the protesting farmers. While the BJP's popularity appeared to dip after the Lok Sabha results, the assembly election results signalled a change. Initially, the protesters succeeded in shaping the narrative. From staging pickets against BJP leaders during campaigns to public outreach and demonstrations, the farm leaders left no stone unturned. Protests at administrative offices and toll plazas further reinforced their message, but the overall mandate suggests their efforts had limited impact.
Gurnam Singh Charuni, a prominent farmer leader who played a key role in the protests against the now-repealed farm laws, managed to secure only 1,170 votes in Pehowa, finishing fifth. The seat was won by Mandeep Chatha of the Congress, who defeated BJP's Jai Bhagwan Sharma by more than 6,500 votes.
Charuni, 64, who has faced multiple imprisonments since 1992 due to his activism, is the president of a faction of the Bhartiya Kisan Union. He contested the election under his political party, the Sanyukt Sangharsh Party (SSP). It is said that Charuni was initially seeking a Congress ticket to challenge the BJP but decided to contest independently when that didn't materialise.
In contrast, state BJP leader and former Haryana minister Anil Vij managed to retain the Ambala Cantonment constituency despite facing significant farmer protests. He defeated independent candidate Chitra Sarwara, a former member of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), by over 7,000 votes, with Congress candidate Parvinder Pal Pari trailing in third place.
Vij - who was dropped from the cabinet when Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced as chief minister by Nayab Singh Saini in March - was heavily targeted by farmer unions throughout his campaign. They picketed his election rallies, and protests followed his campaign trail.
However, in Hisar and Ratia, where BJP candidates also faced intense protests over farm issues, the party suffered losses. In Hisar, BJP leader Kamal Gupta finished third, while in Ratia, Sunita Duggal lost to Congress candidate Jarnail Singh by over 21,000 votes. Gupta had previously won the Hisar seat in both the 2014 and 2019 assembly elections. In Ratia, sitting BJP legislator Lakshman Dass Napa quit the party after being denied a ticket.
The Border Impact
In constituencies bordering Punjab - a state that strongly rejected the BJP and has a robust base of farm unions - the election results were more polarised. Congress secured nine seats, while the BJP won three. Of these, the BJP managed to retain one but lost five to the Congress. The Congress kept two seats but lost one to the BJP. Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which was once allied with the BJP, lost the two seats it previously held in the Punjab border region - one to Congress and the other to the BJP. Notably, the JJP failed to win a single seat in this election.
Farm Politics And Political Leanings
Despite many Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) leaders being directly connected with anti-BJP parties, the group largely stayed out of the elections. In 2022, the SKM severed ties with the Samyukta Samaj Morcha (SSM) led by Balbir Singh Rajewal and Charuni's SSP.
The poster boy of the 2020-2021 anti-farm law protests, Rakesh Tikait, previously contested elections, but without success. On the other hand, Hannan Mollah, a senior leader of the All India Kisan Sabha and former member of Parliament from the Communist Party of India (Marxist), won from West Bengal's Uluberia eight times.
The political leanings of most SKM leaders are rooted in socialist or Left ideologies - traditionally anti-BJP. However, the peasant leaders likely missed a critical lesson from 2020 when, during the height of the protests, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won a majority in the Bihar assembly elections, despite the anti-farm law sentiment.
Undeterred, farm leaders continued to campaign against the BJP in subsequent state elections. While the BJP won governments in Assam and Puducherry, other parties triumphed in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, where SKM leaders claimed some credit for the electoral outcomes, particularly in West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress scored a major victory.
Despite these efforts, two years later it seems that while farm-related issues may have influenced voters in border areas, they failed to swing the overall mandate away from the BJP.
(Jayanta Bhattacharya is a senior journalist writing on polls and politics, conflict, farmer and human interest issues)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author