Opinion | Why Is India's Lok Sabha Election Being Watched By The World?

Taking a short break from the election campaign on Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, respectively. Although in his posts on X Modi stated that they discussed strengthening India's partnerships with the two countries, it was clear the calls were mainly aimed at assuring the two leaders that India remained committed to helping Moscow and Kyiv in finding a peaceful resolution to their conflict. 

A week before that, Modi had sent his National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, to Israel to convey to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he should not take India's support for granted and must not ignore the growing international outcry over the Israeli military's relentless campaign in Gaza, which has killed more than 32,000 people so far and created famine-like conditions.

India As A Global Player

By addressing two major global conflicts even while being deeply engaged in a general election campaign at home, Modi is signalling that he takes India's international responsibility seriously. More importantly, he is signalling that the world takes him seriously and that under his leadership, India is a significant global player.

India is the only major power that has maintained its neutrality since Russia's Ukraine invasion two years ago. But despite the country's close historic ties with Moscow, Modi told Putin firmly last September that it was not the time for war - a comment widely praised by Western powers. Israel also respects Modi's views as he was the first non-Western leader to condemn last September's Hamas attack as terrorism.

Why India's Elections Are Unique

It is customary during general elections to treat incumbent global leaders as lame ducks. However, with Modi, it seems different. Several world leaders are expecting him to return to power after the polls close. The question is, if Modi is widely expected to win the election, why is this democratic exercise still attracting wide international interest? Firstly, India's huge size, complexity, and multi-party and multi-ethnic character make the general elections unique. How the Election Commission of India (ECI) has been able to successfully conduct election after election has been a mystery to many international observers.

Even Freedom House, a US human rights organisation whose recent annual report was condemned in India for calling the country "partly free", believes elections in India have been largely free and fair. The report also said, "The Election Commission is generally respected and has been thought to function without undue political interference." 

But, it added, "In recent years, however, its impartiality and competence have been called into question. International observers will be closely watching if the Election Commission of India (ECI) is able to ensure free and fair polls this time."

India has proudly remained a democracy since its independence in 1947 despite many challenges. It's not flawless, but governments at state and central levels are changed by ballots. It's the only non-Western democracy to achieve that repeatedly in all these years. Despite growing criticism, the Constitution in India is still widely respected and its provisions are fiercely guarded by an independent judiciary.

But critics, both at home and abroad, would like the BJP leadership to address perceptions of hate speech by its members, become more tolerant of dissent, and make the party an inclusive organisation. By denying Lok Sabha tickets to some of its controversial members like Pragya Thakur, Ramesh Bidhuri and Parvesh Varma, the BJP has indicated that it is sensitive to the issue of hate speech. But it's yet to be seen whether the party will make any efforts to become more representative of religious minorities. 

Modi's Popularity

The results of these elections may reveal if Modi is really as popular as the current opinion polls suggest. The approval ratings of the leaders of the US and the UK, two major democracies also going to polls this year, are polling at 40% and 25% respectively. In comparison, a February Ipsos IndiaBus survey showed Modi's approval rating has soared to 75%.

Modi's popularity with the Indian diaspora has been carefully cultivated through the large meetings he addresses during his foreign trips. This has impressed India's Western partners like the US and Britain, whose leaders have attended these meetings. With nearly 5 million Indians in the US and 1.5 million in the UK,  the diaspora vote can make a difference in some constituencies.  It is unreasonable to suggest that Modi is universally popular among the diaspora, but many Indians staying overseas do take more astute interest in the Indian elections than the ones they can vote in.

The Indian Economy

The Indian economy is another key reason the world's audience is paying close attention to the country. It's not just India's size, but also its position as the fastest-growing economy among major countries. The war in Ukraine has adversely affected most European economies where restrictions to Russian gas have led to a cost-of-living crisis. 

The Chinese economy - the world's second-largest - has also been struggling since the Covid-19 pandemic, despite efforts by the Xi Jinping government to revive it. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projection for GDP growth in China this year is only 4.6%. In contrast, its projection for India is 6.5 per cent.  

A stronger economy has opened up new opportunities not only for India but also for other countries that want to take advantage of its huge market. That requires a stable political and business-friendly climate, and Modi has been keen to provide that. His 'Viksit Bharat' vision of making India a developed country by 2047 is aimed at not just the Indian electorate but also the world.

Trade Deals With Countries

Delhi has signed three free trade deals since February last year - with the UAE, Australia and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The EU and Britain are among several other nations that are negotiating such deals with India. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been keen to ink a favourable deal with New Delhi while he's in office, though this seems increasingly unlikely without delivering concessions to Indian post-study work visas-something that has been difficult to do due to domestic political pressure in the UK. Modi has succeeded in securing similar provisions for Indian students in Australia.

 As the Financial Times put it, "a clear pattern is emerging in India's trade policy strategy: if companies or countries want freer access to the big and growing markets of the world's fifth-biggest economy, they must offer a quid pro quo". This sums up the Modi government's global business approach: India is willing to help but it won't provide a free lunch. Also, with a weak opposition in this election, foreign investors see no immediate alternative to doing business with this government. Rahul Gandhi's frequent attacks on big businesses in India are not perceived as helpful to foreign trade.

Concerns In International Community

Unless all pundits and pollsters are proven wrong, a Narendra Modi-led government is likely to return to office in June. But there's no denying the fact there is some concern in the international community about the fairness of this election. The Congress party has accused the government of denying it a level playing field after its accounts were frozen by Income Tax authorities. These allegations, along with the electoral bond issue and arrests of some opposition leaders by central agencies, have not gone unnoticed in the foreign media. 

The Supreme Court's decision on Thursday to put on hold a Fact Check Unit backed by the Centre has been welcomed by the media. They feared that they would end up being the target of the department during the elections. But the jury is still out on how the ECI will conduct the polls. Will it be able to curb money and muscle power and prevent violence in states like West Bengal? Observers will also watch whether the ECI fulfils its promise of holding state assembly elections for Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh after the Lok Sabha battle.

 (The author is a senior London-based journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.