The Delhi election fever is heating up even as the temperature drops in the capital. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress have started announcing their candidate lists. Arvind Kejriwal has already made several promises and launched the “Revadi Par Charcha” (discussion over freebies) campaign. The state government is running a mahila adalat (women's court) even as the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) Mahila Morcha protested outside the AAP convenor's house. The AAP has also been targeting the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre for deteriorating law and order situation in the state, particularly criticising Home Minister Amit Shah.
The Union Territory election is a do-or-die battle for Kejriwal, who faces both a decade of incumbency and a dent in his image due to the arrest of top party leaders in the alleged liquor scam. While the BJP sees an opportunity to make a comeback after nearly three decades, the Congress senses a chance to recover lost ground to AAP. It has fielded former CM Sheila Dikshit's son, Sandeep Dikshit, as its candidate against Arvind Kejriwal from the New Delhi constituency.
Last week, in an effort to consolidate the female vote, the AAP launched the “Mahila Samman Yojana", a cash support scheme offering Rs. 1,000 per month to families with an annual income of less than Rs. 3 lakh, which will increase to Rs. 2,100 per month if the party returns to power. The woman voter has clearly emerged as the kingmaker, as witnessed in recent elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
The Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra, riding on the Laadki Bahin Yojana, and the INDIA bloc in Jharkhand, buoyed by the Maiyya Samman Yojana, both secured handsome victories in the November 2024 state elections. According to a CSDS post-poll study, 66% of women who had applied for the Jharkhand scheme and 54% in Maharashtra voted for the respective alliances.
In the past two Delhi elections, women have supported the AAP significantly. In the 2020 assembly polls, 60% of women voted for the AAP and 35% for the BJP, giving the AAP a 25 percentage point (pp) lead among women. Among male voters, the AAP secured 49% votes, and the BJP 43%, leading to a 6 pp advantage for the AAP, compared to a 25 pp lead among women.
The AAP has managed to woo women voters in Delhi through several schemes, including free electricity, water, quality education in government schools, mohalla clinics offering free medical services, and free bus travel. Now, the AAP aims to further consolidate its base among women.
However, the cash support scheme has come too late, with elections scheduled for February. It can't be implemented before the polls. The bill will need to be sent to the Lieutenant-Governor (L-G) for approval, and given the strained relationship between the AAP and the L-G, a quick approval seems unlikely.
In contrast, in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, these schemes were implemented well ahead of the elections, with millions of women enrolled as beneficiaries and money transferred to their accounts for three to six months. This had a significant impact.
In Madhya Pradesh, despite a tough battle with the Congress, the BJP won a decisive mandate in the 2023 assembly elections. In Maharashtra, the Mahayuti alliance, recovering from a general election setback, won a ¾ majority, partly due to turning half of the state's women voters into beneficiaries. In Jharkhand, the Hemant Soren government enrolled 57 lakh women as beneficiaries.
This success came despite opposition parties' promise in these states (the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra, and the BJP in Jharkhand) to double the cash support for women. However, voters found immediate cash in hand more valuable than future promises. The BJP will likely promise a similar scheme in its Delhi manifesto, highlighting its successful implementation in Madhya Pradesh (Laadli Behna) and Maharashtra (Laadki Bahin).
As a result, it will become a battle of promises: the AAP's cash scheme versus the BJP's. Therefore, the AAP may not gain a significant advantage among women voters in Delhi. The party seems to understand this, which is why it is also focusing on women's security issues and blaming the Centre for the same. Furthermore, the AAP's previous promise of Rs. 1,000 per month cash income support for women during the Punjab election campaign remains unfulfilled. That may go against it too.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author