The Bihar unit of BJP has been in a damage control mode to circumvent any misunderstandings over leadership issues with coalition partner JDU (Janata Dal United) before the all-important assembly elections in 2025. On December 22, state BJP leader and deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary categorically stated that the forthcoming Bihar polls will be fought with Chief Minister and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar as the NDA's face.
Rejecting speculation, Choudhary said, "The NDA is working under the leadership of Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bihar and we will continue to contest elections under the leadership of both leaders." He went on, "In 2020, we contested after announcing (Kumar as the NDA's chief ministerial face) and, to date, we have considered Chief Minister Nitish Kumar only (as the NDA leader in Bihar). In future also, we will contest elections under the leadership of Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi."
The clarification was significant and necessary, given the confusion in political circles - and doubts for its ally JD(U) - that BJP could pull a Maharashtra in Bihar.
Nitish Kumar In A Sulk?
The rumour mill went into overdrive after Union Home Minister Amit Shah's recent interview to a news channel. Replying to a question about whether the NDA would go into the Bihar polls without naming a chief ministerial candidate (a strategy that paid off in Maharashtra), Shah had replied, after a pause, "We will sit together and decide. We will let you know after we have made a decision." His reply set tongues wagging about Nitish Kumar's future.
Adopting an "all is well" posturing, JDU officially interpreted Shah's statement as a form of tacit approval for Nitish Kumar's continued leadership. One of its spokespersons said, "Maun lakshanam, swikriti lakshanam (Silence means tacit consent)" but called for coordination among NDA allies.
However, sources say there is disquiet among JDU leaders, including Nitish himself.
Like always, as he does when he is unhappy with coalition partners, Nitish called in sick and didn't attend the two-day "Global Investors Summit - Bihar Business Connect 2024"; his two deputies from the BJP, Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, showed up. The Chief Minister was expected to address potential investors and share the state's economic vision.
A sulking Nitish Kumar also cancelled his visit to Nalanda district on December 20 to inaugurate a statue of Magadh emperor Jarasandha in Rajgir, along with his two deputies.
Sanjay Kumar, a Patna-based political expert, says during this time the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) sensed an opportunity. "Nitish went silent. He distanced himself from scheduled programmes. RJD sensed it and made moves to contact Nitish. BJP came to know of these developments and went on damage control mode stating that they will fight elections under Nitish's leadership."
The Maharashtra analogy looms, because just like in Bihar, the BJP was the senior partner in the ruling coalition.
To reassure Nitish Kumar after Shah's interview, NDA constituents in Bihar held a meeting in Patna on December 20 and reiterated their faith in his leadership for the polls, ruling out any reconsideration.
Bihar BJP chief Dilip Jaiswal too sought to explain that key decisions are taken by the parliamentary Board. Other NDA partners like Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) also lent their support to Nitish Kumar.
As Nitish Kumar stayed glum, Samrat Choudhary reasserted that his boss would be the NDA's leader for the 2025 polls. Especially as rumours suggested the BJP may fight elections with Choudhary as its chief ministerial face in Bihar.
Behind the scenes
A beaming and visibly healthy Nitish Kumar launched his 'Pragati Yatra' - his record 14th yatra - on December 23. But all is not well between the NDA coalition partners.
"The statements coming from BJP's state leadership will not satisfy either Nitish or his coterie. They want a clarification from the senior BJP leadership in Delhi," says Ravi Upadhyay, a senior journalist based in Patna.
"Nitish's actions and reactions are instant. He hits out intelligently. There is an ongoing political turmoil in Bihar. JDU is alert after the turn of events in Maharashtra," adds Upadhyay.
NK Chaudhury, a senior political analyst, says, "JDU and Nitish are both jittery after Shah's comments. BJP is only testing waters as it cannot afford to antagonise JDU at this juncture. With Nitish, nothing can be ruled out. Even if Lalu Yadav extends support to Nitish now, it will be short-lived."
About jeopardising the coalition governments in the state and at the Centre (where BJP doesn't have a majority and is propped up by the JDU and Telugu Desam Party), Sanjay Kumar says, "Both BJP and JDU are indulging in pressure politics. There is also information about disgruntlement within the JDU and its MPs being in touch with the BJP's central leadership. This may have given confidence to Shah to make such a statement."
The BJP may say later that Nitish Kumar overreacted when he skipped out on the investors' meet where investments worth Rs 1.8 lakh crore were declared for Bihar, which the state needs so desperately.
Perhaps the BJP is taking a calculated risk knowing that for the 2025 elections, Lalu Yadav will only entertain Nitish on the condition that his son and former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav is made chief minister - which will never be acceptable to Nitish Kumar.
It will be good for the BJP to placate Nitish Kumar soon, unless it has something else up its sleeve.
(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
