Opinion | Southern India Has A Problem Similar To Japan, China

A light-hearted comment made by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin over couples and children, soon after his Andhra Pradesh counterpart N Chandrababu Naidu advised people to have more offspring, has revived the debate over delimitation and its impact on southern states, which have lower population indices.

On October 21, at an event organised by Tamil Nadu's Hindu Religious and Charitable Endowments department in Chennai, Stalin cited an old tradition of blessing people with wishes for 16 children, while pointing out that the south's lower fertility rates could translate to weakened political power after delimitation.

Days earlier, Chandrababu Naidu had declared his apprehensions about the ageing population in south Indian states. He said his government was contemplating incentivising families for having more children, keeping the future in mind. He also exhorted people of south Indian states to have more children.

Though Naidu and Stalin spoke in different contexts, their remarks highlight the common concern of southern states over the disadvantages of a dwindling as well as ageing population.

South's elderly population

Data reflects the ageing population and falling fertility rates in India - by 2050, one in every five persons will be above 60. For southern states, it is still grimmer. Over the years, southern states have seen a noteworthy demographic shift as their total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level. The fertility rate in southern states at 1.6 was below the national average of little above 2.

The TFR is the average number of children that a woman will have during her reproductive years. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level - a population can maintain its size across generations.

According to India Ageing Report 2023 compiled by the UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund and IIPS (International Institute for Population Sciences), the proportion of elderly in the population will increase by 6 to 7% in the south compared to 3 to 4% in north India between 2021 and 2036. Life expectancy is also high in the south. 

Southern states shifted to a lower fertility rate much earlier than the northern states. According to statistics, Uttar Pradesh is set to achieve the replacement level of fertility in 2025, more than 20 years after Andhra Pradesh. Having made the demographic transition before the north (particularly the states dubbed 'BIMARU'), there are fears that southern states will pay the price.

Over the years, south Indian states have successfully implemented family planning schemes. From birth control measures to educating women, South Indian states have been at the forefront in population stabilisation.

Naidu rightly cited countries with an ageing population - Japan, China, and European countries - facing a strain on their economy.

A reduced working-age population means less people contributing to the economy through work, taxes, and social security. In comparison, the proportion of elderly people who require pensions and healthcare security rises, putting a financial strain on both families and governments.

"Northern states are doing nothing to control their population. This naturally makes the southern states feel that they are being punished for implementing family planning measures," says Professor RV Ramana Murthy, School of Economics, University of Hyderabad.

"If this divergence continues, in a couple of decades, the position of the southern states will be far worse. That is what the chief ministers (Naidu and Stalin) are trying to convey," Murthy adds.

Delimitation - a disadvantage

The reports of the Centre's plan to rearrange constituencies based on population has raised worries in southern states over the possible consequences. Any such realignment of constituencies would hand a political advantage to north Indian states, which have larger populations, as they would get more Lok Sabha seats compared to the south.

There is a lurking fear that the delimitation process, scheduled to occur after the new census, would potentially diminish the influence of southern states in national decision-making as they would have fewer Lok Sabha constituencies.

Naidu and Stalin's remarks will also find support from Karnataka, Telangana and Kerala, which have already been calling out the bias of population numbers shaping devolution of central funds both in Parliament and outside; southern states are effectively being "penalises" for meeting population goals, they believe.

The dispute over devolution of central funds has been one of the core subjects of frustration for southern leaders.

They have been constantly complaining that the devolution given to states has been significantly lower in the last few years compared to the recommended levels of the 15th Finance Commission. Also, the share of devolution for the less populous and fiscally stronger southern states tend to be lower, while northern states that are weaker on these metrics get a larger share of central taxes, imply by numbers.

So, despite their substantial contribution to the GDP (over 30%) and population (19.6%), the southern states have seen their share in tax devolution decrease from 21% under the 11th Finance Commission to just 15.8% under the 15th Finance Commission.

"Because of applying 2011 population criterion, southern states have lost their revenue share in the central pool. Further, southern states have an aging population, which increases the burden of provision of pension," says Murthy.

The Centre needs to settle the misgivings and doubts about the delimitation of Lok Sabha seats and assuage the concerns of the south Indian states. They cannot be punished for achieving goals.

(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author