Opinion: Why The Karnataka Verdict Is Bad News For AAP

The poor performance of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Karnataka election has gone relatively unnoticed.

However, its rout has far-reaching implications for the party's national pitch and mission to replace the Congress as the principal opposition pole against the BJP.

The Congress party's revival of sorts, coupled with a leadership void in states and the overdependence on Arvind Kejriwal have complicated matters for AAP. 

AAP's foray into South India was highly unpleasant for the newbie national party:

- AAP received 2.25 lakh votes, with a 0.58% vote share, when it claims to have two lakh members in Karnataka, so essentially only its members voted for it.

- It polled lower votes than NOTA or None Of The Above (0.69%) and all its candidates lost their deposit.

- Only 72 of its 208 candidates polled more than 1,000 votes.

- It couldn't even get the urban or middle-class vote in Bengaluru, which has been reeling from voter apathy. 

- All its high-profile candidates lost in urban Bengaluru. 

AAP's success has largely come at the cost of the Congress in states like Delhi, Punjab and Gujarat. Around 67% of AAP's voters in Delhi and 85% each in Punjab and Gujarat were previously aligned with the Congress. 

The vote blocks of AAP and Congress are complementary. AAP has drawn poor voters and those from lower socio-economic backgrounds, Dalits, and minority communities, from the Congress party in these states.

Buoyed by the declining fortunes of the Congress over the past eight to nine years and its own victory in Punjab, AAP revealed its national aspirations in August 2022 with the launch of the 'Make India No 1' campaign. The campaign emphasized that for the sake of development, the country cannot be left to those who have been in power until now.

AAP will maintain an equidistant approach from both the Congress and the BJP as it does not believe in jod-tod ki rajneeti, the party maintained. AAP's aim was to emerge as a national force, emerge as the new Congress, and take on the BJP. 

However, AAP's hopes were dashed as the Congress showed an improved performance in Karnataka, where it beat the BJP handsomely. The Congress won the support of the poor and marginalized sections of society (the aam aadmi) while also gaining the trust of the urban and middle-class voters.

The Congress winning Karnataka without any opposition unity has forced fence-sitters like Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress and Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party to soften their stance on alliance/electoral understanding with the grand old party. 

The party has re-established its claim to lead any opposition front. This could likely force a rethink among opposition voters who may have been demotivated after its losses and were looking for alternatives. The Congress party's appeal to the anti-BJP voters has received a boost following the outcome in Karnataka. 

In the Congress versus BJP head-to-head contests in upcoming election states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, AAP has limited presence. To register its presence like in Gujarat, AAP has to campaign aggressively from today as time is running out. In Rajasthan, AAP's entire strategy hinges on the potential scenario of Sachin Pilot exiting Congress and joining them, which appears unlikely. 

The party has been weakened as two of its senior ministers, Manish Sisodia and Satyendar Jain, are in jail facing corruption allegations. This has seriously dented image. The recent allegations that Rs. 45 crore of taxpayers' money was spent on refurbishing the official residence of Arvind Kejriwal, who champions the cause of the aam aadmi, are not helping.

AAP is also embroiled in constant confrontation with the Centre and the Lieutenant Governor on power sharing. These circumstances restrict Kejriwal's capacity to extensively campaign for the party in other states. 

A fair assessment of AAP reveals that the national party has just one Member of Parliament and is in serious contention primarily in Delhi (7 seats) and Punjab (13 seats). In other states, it has no significant presence, which hurts its national aspirations. Given these circumstances, convincing that AAP is a viable alternative in 2024 becomes difficult.

Also, Congress has smartly emulated AAP's approach of offering freebies to the poor (free electricity and cooking gas), and women and youth (cash doles), following its debacle in Gujarat. The Congress has also adopted AAP's campaign model of making early promises and guarantees, giving it ample time for disseminating its message at the grassroots level, setting the agenda, and shaping the narrative.

With the Congress improving its vote share in Karnataka, AAP's basic hope of gaining at the expense of the grand old party in 2024 seems to be fading. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has met with Arvind Kejriwal to discuss a joint opposition front against the BJP in 2024.

If AAP joins any such alliance, then its pitch of becoming the new Congress and replacing it in the Indian political system will be significantly diluted.

Now the Congress has said it will consider supporting AAP against the Centre's move on Delhi postings in Parliament. AAP's love-hate relationship with the Congress, tactical deals with the grand old party, also confuses voters regarding its positioning.

The outcome in Karnataka has likely extinguished AAP's aspirations of becoming a national alternative to the BJP and replacing Congress in the 2024 elections.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.