(Kumar Ketkar is a senior journalist, political commentator, globe trotter and author. He has covered all Indian elections since 1971 and significant international events. He is a frequent participant on TV debates.)Balasaheb Thackeray's 89th birth anniversary on January 23 proved to be an occasion for Shiv Sainiks, not only for introspection but also for taking stock of the party's current predicament and the spectre of non-relevance of the Shiv Sena in the near future.
Sanjay Raut, the firebrand executive editor of Saamna, the Sena mouthpiece, used the opportunity of the birth anniversary to produce and present a film to propagate the militant thoughts of Balasaheb. It is not a biopic. It is aimed at reviving the spirit of the Shiv Sena as a (street) fighting organization and reincarnating, as it were, Bal Thackreay as a braveheart leading the charge against all real and imaginary enemies. He was in his late 30s when the young and creative cartoonist was born as an aggressive politician.
The film is rather innocuously, titled "Balkadu", literally meaning "tonic", but actually suggesting that Balasaheb inculcated pride among Marathi people. In the mid-60s, this, for the Sena, meant confronting migrants to Mumbai over jobs which was presented as the prerogative of Marathi boys. Bal Thackreay exhorted the young, mostly unemployed, lumpen youths to drive out the "invading" migrants who were "taking over Mumbai."
The enemies kept on changing or often emerged in different forms. Initially, the aliens were the "Madrasis" or "lungiwalas". The Sena did not distinguish between the Tamils, Malyalis, Kannadigas or Telugus. They spoke "andugundu" and wore lungis! So the militant and inspired Shiv Sainiks attacked Udipi hotels and South Indian stenographers and typists. It is at that time that the factory employers saw an opportunity in the saffron mobilization. With their active support (and connivance of the then Congress government), they found a new enemy--the communists! Then the trade unions led by the comrades became the targets. The communist-led trade union movement eclipsed from Mumbai. Then the target was Muslims. The destruction of the Babri Masjid provided an opportunity to the Sena gangs to go on a rampage in December 1992 and January 1993. Unless it had an identifiable enemy, the Sena could not convince the people or even itself of its relevance.
Militancy was the medium, violence was the content, terror was the message. The Marathi identity, manifested thus, was to camouflage the Marathi inferiority complex. Sanjay Raut's film is supposed to celebrate this Shiv Sena spirit of the 60s and the 70s. The birth anniversary and the release of the film comes as the morale of the Sena is down, and on the verge of out, though the party may pretend otherwise.
For the state election held just a few months ago, Uddhav and many Sena leaders thought that there would be a kind of "sympathy" or sort of "memory" wave as Balasaheb had passed away just two years before. The entire campaign was built around the image and message of Balasaheb. His video tapes were played frequently on all Marathi channels. There was a feeling that the militant Marathi identity and the image of Balasaheb would overshadow Narendra Modi. The results provided a reality check - the BJP won 123 seats and the Sena won 66 . The frustration is still seething within the party.
The birth anniversary also coincided with the news on the front pages that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was to go to Sharad Pawar's Maratha fortress, Baramati, to inaugurate an educational event. It was a clear message to Uddhav Thackeray that the BJP does not depend on the Sena to keep the government stable. Pawar's party, the NCP, has become a reserve force of the BJP. Before the state election in October, over a dozen NCP leaders had defected to the BJP and were elected on the Lotus Ticket! Apaprently the defections had the blessings of Pawar, the so-called Maratha strongman.
For the past four months, the Sena has been ragged by Amit Shah, chief Uddhav has been humiliated in various ways by Modi, and the rest of the Sena leadership neglected with total disdain by the BJP.
After placing second in the election, Uddhav was trapped between a rock and a hard place. If he had chosen to not join the government, he would have faced a revolt in the ranks. Many of them - easily over a dozen elected Sena legislators - had threatened to rebel and join the BJP. They were even ready to resign and contest again on a BJP ticket. On the other hand, by joining the government, the Sena would have to accept second-class citizen status.
The BJP has made its position aggressively clear now. They do not want to contest the Mumbai Corporation election, due in about two years in alliance with the Shiv Sena. This means, yet again, the re-established saffron alliance is headed for a split. If the Shiv Sena loses the Mumbai Corporation, it will have nothing to show to its cadres. This means that the Sena workers and leaders will start negotiating with the BJP.
Neither the film nor the anniversary mobilization can re-ignite the spirit of the Sena. After all, the living man cannot be replaced either by a film or by a monument.
And the Sena's real problem may be that Uddhav doesn't have the personality of the party's founding father.
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