Opinion | Women-Focused Cash Schemes Are Here To Stay

The Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections have seen the incumbent alliances retain power, defying anti-incumbency. Their wins are being attributed to the direct cash transfer schemes they launched just months before the elections. The ruling parties in both the states have returned with more seats than they held previously.

Two women-centric schemes paid off handsomely for the incumbents in each state - the Maharashtra Mahayuti's Mukhyamantri-Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, providing Rs 1,500 a month to women; and the JMM-led government's Maiya Samman Yojana providing Rs 1,000 a month.

These elections also witnessed a large turnout of women voters. It can be concluded that cash transfer, in whatever name, is the gamechanger.

In Maharashtra, the Mahayuti has promised to increase the Ladki Bahin allowance from Rs 1,500 a month to Rs 2,100, and so has the JMM in Jharkhand - from Rs 1,000 to Rs 2,500. This means more pressure on the states' treasury.

Success of DBT

In October 2022, both the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the World Bank had praised India's DBT (direct benefit transfers) and how it had managed to transfer cash support to millions of people, benefiting especially the women, elderly and the farmers. Initially, it was just the Central government transferring money to the poor under its various schemes. But soon the states realised the benefit of DBT in electoral politics.  

Those in favour of DBT, especially state governments who introduced the schemes and reaped electoral benefits, say it provides the poor a greater variety of choices, increasing consumption unlike seen before.

In the 2021 West Bengal assembly election, Mamata Bannerjee dodged anti-incumbency and her party Trinamool Congress won with a bigger majority, mainly due to the 'Lakshmir Bhandar' scheme for women. The Congress came to power in Karnataka in May 2023 riding on its Gruha Lakshmi and Yuvanidhi schemes among many other promises, which was later adapted as the Mahalakshmi scheme for the Telangana election in December 2023, where too the Congress won.

The only aberration is Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh; his 'Jagananna Amma Vodi' launched in 2020 failed to ensure his win in the 2024 state election.

The BJP, which has always been strongly critical of what it calls the 'revadi' culture - comparing poll sops to a popular sweet - too has tasted election victory due to various DBT schemes for women and farmers, in Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and now in Maharashtra.

In the 2023 Madhya Pradesh election, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government's Ladli Behna scheme proved to be the reason for the BJP's stunning turnaround against all odds, including 20 years of anti-incumbency. The party even scored 54 more seats than its previous tally, leaving the Congress in shock.

"DBT significantly contributes to women's empowerment by increasing access to financial resources and giving women autonomy in household decision-making. It also enhances the social and economic status of women in the society," says Abhash Kumar, assistant professor of economics, Atma Ram Sanatan Dharma College, Delhi University.

The Election Commission says there has been a 5% surge in voters in Maharashtra, led by women. While 2,53,90,647 women voted in the 2019 assembly polls, 3,06,49,318 women voted on November 20 - an increase of 52,58,671 voters. In Jharkhand, women voters outnumbered the male in terms of voting percentage across 68 of the 81 assembly segments. Interestingly, women voters outnumbered the male voters by 5,51,797 across the state, according to election officials.

"The implementation of women-focused DBT schemes correlates with positive political outcomes for ruling parties in states. These women specific schemes have swayed women voters," Abhash Kumar explains.

Burden versus benefit

The cash transfers have cost the state exchequer substantially.

It is estimated that in Maharashtra, the Rs 2,100 monthly to 'poor beneficiaries' will cost over Rs 5,000 crore a month. Other benefits, including the promise of higher pension by the ruling alliance, will likely add an annual burden of Rs 60,000 crore in Maharashtra.

Jharkhand's increased payout of Rs 2,500 to some 48 lakh women beneficiaries is likely to push up its outlay to Rs 14,400 crore. This, despite the state accruing huge benefits from tax on minerals due to a favourable Supreme Court verdict. 

The latest electoral success of DBT, may result in political parties resorting to the magical wand in other states where elections are due. Political leaders will not hesitate to sacrifice long-term fiscal stability for short-term electoral gains. While the scheme offers financial relief, its execution may worsen states' precarious financial situation.

"When multiple schemes operate simultaneously the cumulative expenditure is huge and results in limiting funds for growth projects and infrastructure development," says Kumar.

"Moreover, there are challenges in identifying genuine beneficiaries, which leads to misallocations of resources. DBT also increases dependency on the government and reduces active labour participation in the market," he adds.

Reports say the BJP is planning to replicate its Maharashtra strategy in Delhi, where elections are due in February. A similar strategy has been AAP's poll plank since its debut in electoral politics. Women-focused initiatives are set to play a central role in BJP's electoral promises not just for Delhi but also in Bihar next year. The party is also planning to introduce a DBT scheme for women in its manifesto. Bihar is set to vote for a new government in November next year.

The increasing attention on women as a target voter group has shifted electoral dynamics in several states. Sadly, good politics often sets the stage for bad economics.

(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author