The Women's Reservation Bill has triggered an intense debate about the expected delimitation or redrawing of constituencies after 2026. The Bill will be implemented after the delimitation exercise is completed on the basis of the first Census after it clears Parliament.
The delimitation exercise is likely to result in the redrawing of boundaries of constituencies based on the latest population numbers, and this will lead to an increase in the strength of Lok Sabha. The new Parliament has the capacity to seat 888 MPs in Lok Sabha.
In 2001, parliament cleared the 91st amendment to the Constitution, extending the 25-year-old freeze on the total number and state-wise distribution of seats in Lok Sabha till the year 2026.
Some parties and commentators believe that the southern states will lose seats during the delimitation exercise as they have managed their population growth better than northern states on account of better family planning measures.
In Lok Sabha, DMK MP Kanimozhi raised her apprehensions, "If delimitation is going to be based on population census, it will deprive and reduce the representation of south Indian states. It will become like a sword hanging over our heads."
She added, "He [Stalin] has emphasized the doubt in the minds of people of Tamil Nadu and other south Indian states about our representation being reduced. There is a fear that our voices will be undermined. There should be a clear clarification about this and we do not want our representation to be reduced anywhere."
First of all, Lok Sabha seats for any state are not going to reduce as the current composition is based on the 1976 delimitation which was based on 1971 census. Now the population of all states has increased since then, so how can the seats of a state decline?
The Top 5 states are expected to witness an increase in seats; Uttar Pradesh from 80 to 143, Maharashtra from 48 to 84, West Bengal from 42 to 73, Bihar from 40 to 70 and Tamil Nadu from 39 to 58.
The seats of Southern states are likely to increase as shown in Table below:
The seats of Southern States are likely to increase by 66, which is 19.1% of the total expected increase of 345 (888 minus 543).
Now let us look at a region-wise analysis. This is what will cause the real heartburn. This is the reason this exercise has been stalled so many times over the years.
A region-wise analysis of the Lok Sabha post-delimitation shows that South (-1.9 percent) and Northeast (-1.1 percent) could witness a decline in representation from their regions as a percentage of the total Lok Sabha seats. The proportion of seats from the southern part of India is likely to decline from 24.1% to 22.2%.
North India, which accounts for 27.8 percent of the current Lok Sabha strength, would see a rise of 1.6 percent and account for 29.4 percent of seats in the new Lok Sabha.
Similarly, Eastern India (+0.5 percent), Western India (+0.5 percent) and Central India (+0.4 percent) would also see higher representation in line with an increase in population.
So the number of seats of southern India is not likely to decline; its proportionate share could reduce to give shape to new population dynamics. Their "hissedaari" could reduce because of "sankhya".
The delimitation is being opposed by southern states on the premise that they are being penalised for having better family planning measures.
The INDIA block has been demanding a caste census and "jiski jitni sankhya bhaari uski utni hissedaari" (more numbers, bigger share). Rahul Gandhi, at a rally in Karnataka during the election campaign, demanded making public the 2011 caste census, removal of the 50% cap on reservation, and a quota system proportional to the population of Dalits, OBCs, and tribals in India.
However, talk of delimitation has led the DMK to complain that South India will lose out. This exposes their double standards and is quite contrary to their demand for an OBC census, and representation/reservation on the basis of population.
Even during the debate on the women's quota bill, the opposition demanded separate quota for OBC women to fulfill the social justice agenda, claiming that a big section of the population will be potentially neglected.
How can a party demand justice for OBCs in line with their representation but deny justice to northern states in political representation in line with their strength?
On the other hand, the proponents of a new composition for Lok Sabha argue that if delimitation is not carried out per the current population then it beats that basic premise of the Constitution - one person one vote.
The BJP is stronger in the northern, western and central part of India and it stands to benefit in the new delimitation exercise. However, will it be prudent for a party trying to expand its base in South India to disturb the current set up and invite the anger of the populace? This could further deepen the north-south divide.
Politics is the art of managing contradictions. INDIA has to manage contradictions galore in their bloc to present a united front to the public.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author