Odds Stacked Against Him, Akhilesh Yadav Heads Into His Biggest Fight

A huge victory, Chief Minister's post at the young age of 38 and then a crushing defeat - Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has seen it all. And now, at a more mature 48, he is preparing for his biggest election - one against the formidable poll machinery of the BJP.

In the politics of Uttar Pradesh - the most populous and largest state which could have been the world's fifth largest nation had it not been a state - Akhilesh Yadav's lineage cannot be bettered. His father, Mulayam Yadav, had turned his wrestling skills to the political arena and won the Chief Minister-ship thrice. His uncle Shivpal Yadav is a political veteran who, after their five-year spat, is ready to come back into the fold.

Akhilesh Yadav rode to power in 2012 after a hard reboot of the party - embracing technology and English and turning it into a vehicle for the aspirations of the sizeable number of young voters of the state.

This time, the odds are stacked against the man once seen as the "Other Prince": The BJP's huge campaign funds, the charismatic oratory of the Prime Minister, a dozen or so Central ministers, the party's keenest strategist Amit Shah. His opponent is the BJP's biggest poster boy after the Prime Minister -- Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

But Mamata Banerjee's sweeping victory in Bengal this summer against similar odds has punched holes in the aura of invincibility around the BJP. For the Samajwadi Party, that has been cause to rejoice.

In the run-up to the election, the party has taken a leaf out of her book, remodeling the Trinamool Congress's viral "Khela Hobe" tune as "Khadeda Hoibe", showcasing the overflowing crowds at the rallies of Akhilesh Yadav.

Those crowds are the other thing the Samajwadi Party is pinning its hopes on. The eight phases of the Samajwadi Vijay Yatra through eastern and central Uttar Pradesh and Bundelkhand have seen thousands upon thousands in attendance.

The party says it is a sign that the BJP's time in power is up, that the people are ready for a change; that after the last five years of unemployment and misgovernance, they want the BJP to go. The Covid crisis of this summer, when thousands of bodies were seen buried on Ganga's sandbanks and floating down the river, was the last straw, they say.

But in the caste driven politics of Uttar Pradesh, crowds are no guarantee of votes. Mayawati found this out the hard way in 2012, when her reigning Bahujan Samaj Party faced a crushing defeat.

"Look at the number of people gathered here. There is no need for me to comment," she had told NDTV when asked if she expects a fifth term as Chief Minister. But the results of 2012, 2017 and 2019 have made it clear that her political space in the state is shrinking.

Mr Yadav is now attempting to broaden his base beyond the traditional Muslim-Yadav combine his party banks on. He wants to target non-Yadav OBCs.

Akhilesh Yadav is not planning an alliance with a bigger, national party after the misadventures of 2017 and 2019, when he partnered the Congress and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. Those had delivered the bitterest defeats of his political career.

From the massive 224 of the state's 403 seats and 29 per cent votes in 2017, he had come down to just 47 seats and 22 per cent votes in 2017. That time, his partner was the Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi. But the Grand Old party had failed to deliver, leaving the Samajwadi Party high and dry.

In 2019, the alliance with Mayawati -what came to be known as the bua-bhatija effort - also bombed. Of the 37 parliamentary seats contested by the combine, they won only 5 . BJP walked away with 62

This time, Akhilesh Yadav is trying to weave a seamless net with smaller OBC-based parties across the key regions of the state which he hopes will deliver over 30 per cent votes need to have a realistic chance to win the elections.