Asteroid Apophis, nicknamed the “God of Destruction,” will make a close approach to Earth in April 2029. Although the risk of a direct collision with the planet remains extremely low, new research suggests if smaller asteroids or space rocks strike Apophis, they may potentially alter its trajectory, increasing the chances of hitting the Earth.
Apophis, with a diameter ranging between 340 and 450 metres, will pass within 37,000 km of Earth – it might be visible to the naked eye.
New research revealed that if smaller asteroids or space rocks were to collide with Apophis, they could potentially alter its trajectory. The implications of this are significant. Although Apophis is nearly as wide as the Empire State Building is tall, such collisions might redirect its path, possibly affecting future encounters with Earth, including its 2029 flyby.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has been keeping a close eye on asteroid Apophis. Earlier, ISRO's Chairman, Dr S Somanath told NDTV that a large asteroid strike posed a “real existential threat to humanity”.
“ISRO is very alive to that threat and our Network for Space Objects Tracking and Analysis (NETRA) is monitoring Apophis very closely. After all, we have only one Earth to live on. India will cooperate with all nations to ward off this and other such future threats,” the ISRO Chairman said.
Meanwhile, new research by astronomer Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario indicates the odds of Apophis being deflected onto a collision course with Earth by smaller asteroids are slim. According to Wiegert, the probability of an asteroid collision shifting Apophis onto a dangerous path is about 1 in 1 million, with the chance of a direct impact in 2029 being 1 in 2 billion.
Wiegert's study stated that while small asteroids hitting Apophis could theoretically alter its trajectory, such events are highly improbable, reported Space.com. The research evaluated potential impacts from objects ranging in size from 60 centimetres to 3 metres, revealing that these collisions would need to occur at precise angles to affect Apophis's path significantly.
Discovered in 2004, Apophis initially raised alarm due to its size and route, making it a significant concern on impact risk lists by both the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA. However, a close flyby in March 2021 reassured scientists that Apophis would not pose a threat for at least the next 100 years.
Despite its menacing nickname, the asteroid's upcoming approach in 2029 is unlikely to result in a catastrophic collision. Should future passages in 2036 or 2068 show any threat, scientists have discussed potential mitigation strategies, including deflection missions similar to NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART).
