NASA Says There's 3.1% Chance Of Asteroid Hitting Earth, New Simulation Shows Its Devastating Effect

The probability of a "city-killer" asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 just increased to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, according to NASA, and a chilling animation depicting the apocalyptic impact that the asteroid could have is going viral online. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an estimated diameter of around 177 feet (54 meters), roughly the size of a building. But while it is too small to end human civilization, the asteroid could still wipe out a major city, as per LiveScience. However, despite the odds, experts have said that there is no need for alarm. 

"I'm not panicking," Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society told AFP. "Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy and good," he added. But as astronomers gather more data, he explained, the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero.

An X user shared a video simulation of the rock's potential impact. "NASA has increased the chance a major asteroid smashes into Earth in 2032, now giving it a 3.1% chance, up from 2.6% last week. NASA says the odds the asteroid hits Earth is 1 in 32. It is big enough to wipe out an entire city," the user wrote while sharing the clip. 

Take a look below: 

NEW: NASA has increased the chance a major asteroid smashes into Earth in 2032, now giving it a 3.1% chance, up from 2.6% last week.

NASA says the odds the asteroid hits Earth is 1 in 32. It is big enough to wipe out an entire city.

The large cities with the highest risk are… pic.twitter.com/WHVsiGsieT

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 18, 2025

According to the New York Post, the dramatic simulation has been created by 3D animation wizard Alvaro Gracia Montoya. It shows a massive space rock laying waste to a metropolis.

Notably, Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a worldwide planetary defence collaboration, issued a warning memo in January this year after the impact probability had crossed 1%. Since then, the figure has fluctuated but continues to trend upward.

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NASA's latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1%, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032. That translates to odds of one in 32.

Experts have, however, said that there's still a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely, and as researchers learn more about its trajectory, the odds of a strike are likely to decrease to 0%, based on its current risk level in the NASA data, as per LIve Science. There's also a tiny 0.3% chance that YR4 will hit the moon instead of Earth, the outlet previously reported.