A new study published in The Lancet predicts that nearly 40 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant infections by 2050. The study found that deaths due to antibiotic resistance have been steadily increasing and are expected to accelerate in the coming decades.
"It's a big problem, and it is here to stay," said Christopher J. L. Murray, senior author of the study and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Researchers are warning that the growing threat of antibiotic resistance is making common infections more difficult to treat and putting medical procedures at risk. Their findings reveal that older adults are disproportionately affected by AMR deaths, facing a higher risk of infection.
The study analyzed 520 million data points, including hospital discharge records, insurance claims, and death certificates from 204 countries. Through statistical modelling, the authors discovered that over a million deaths related to antimicrobial resistance occurred annually between 1990 and 2021. They predict that AMR deaths will continue to rise.
Kevin Ikuta, the lead author of the study and an assistant professor of clinical medicine at UCLA, noted that the projected 39 million deaths over the next 25 years would average about three deaths per minute.
The study also shows an uneven burden: while AMR deaths among children under five decreased by more than 50% from 1990 to 2021, deaths among individuals aged 70 and older increased by over 80%. The authors expect deaths among children to continue declining, halving by 2050, while those among seniors are projected to double in the same period. This shift could lead to AMR deaths among older adults surpassing those in other age groups as the global population ages and becomes more susceptible to infections.
South Asia is projected to account for an estimated 11.8 million of the 39 million AMR deaths, with significant numbers also expected in sub-Saharan Africa.
Ikuta emphasized the role of antibiotic overuse and misuse in driving bacterial resistance. He advocates for improved antibiotic stewardship to enhance access to antibiotics while controlling their excessive use.
Ishani Ganguli, a primary care physician and associate professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, emphasizes the importance of avoiding unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions. She often addresses patient concerns about antibiotics for viral infections, such as the common cold, by discussing the lack of benefits and potential side effects, like diarrhoea and yeast infections. Ganguli's approach includes offering alternative treatments like saltwater gargles and humidifiers.
The study calls for increased efforts to combat antibiotic resistance, including improving antibiotic stewardship, promoting infection prevention, and developing new antibiotics. By taking these steps, we can reduce the number of deaths caused by this serious public health threat.
