"Spillover Events" From 4 Killer Viruses Like Ebola Will Kill 12 Times More People Than 2050: Study

Four zoonotic infections (those that travel from animals to humans) threaten to kill 12 times as many people in 2050 as they did in 2020, according to a new research published in the open access journal BMJ Global Health on Thursday. Citing the research, Financial Times (FT) said in its report that it calls for "urgent action" to tackle the growing health threat posed by zoonotic infections. The warning comes as concerns have increased since the coronavirus pandemic emerged in China in 2019 and spread across the globe.

The new study says that environmental and population changes over the past six decades were driving growing numbers of "spillover events" that caused the pandemic.

The research is based on an analysis of 60 years of historical epidemiological data and carried out by Amanda Jean Meadows, Ginkgo Bioworks, Emeryville, California.

It highlighted 75 spillover events in 24 countries between 1963 and 2019 that caused 17,232 deaths. 

"It's not just that we are seeing more of these events but they are persisting longer and generating more fatalities," Ben Oppenheim, co-author of the BMJ paper, told FT. "It points not just to the risk, but to the magnitude of the work needed to mitigate it."

The viruses that were included in this analysis were epidemic Filoviruses (Ebola, Marburg), SARS Coronavirus 1, Nipah virus, and Machupo virus (that causes hemorrhagic fever).

The viruses that cause Ebola and Marburg are harboured by fruit bats and monkeys. Outbreaks are typically found in African countries but have been seen in Europe and the United States.

SARS, meanwhile, is a virus that spread to more than two dozen countries in North and South America, Europe and Asia before the global outbreak of 2003 was contained.

It is also spread by fruit bats and so is Nipah.

However, the researchers said that implications for future global health are difficult to characterise since historical epidemiological data remains largely fragmented and difficult to analyse.

They also said that this trend "can be altered by concerted global efforts to improve our capacity to prevent and contain outbreaks". The researchers said such efforts are needed to address this large and growing risk to global health.