Hyderabad:
Jagan Mohan Reddy may be in jail but all eyes in Andhra Pradesh are on him and the YSR Congress. Counting has begun across 12 districts in the state for one Lok Sabha and 18 assembly seats. Initial trends indicate YSR Congress candidates leading in 6 constituencies, including Prathipadu and Tirupati.
Pollsters predict Jagan and his party will win big - some exit polls giving him 16 of the 18 assembly seats. A whopping 79.52 per cent votes were cast on Tuesday, and analysts say the high turnout may signal both the 'anti-incumbency' and 'sympathy' factors at work for Jagan Mohan Reddy.
The YSR Congress chief is currently lodged in Chanchalguda Jail in Hyderabad. He was arrested by the CBI on May 27 in a disproportionate assets case. This has kept him away from the campaign trail for the last two weeks. But observers say the campaigning by his mother YS Vijaya and sister Sharmila has generated a 'sympathy wave' for his party.
In 16 of the 18 assembly seats that will be decided today, by-elections are being held because the sitting Congress MLAs were disqualified by the Assembly Speaker for switching loyalties to the YSR Congress and voting against the Congress government during a no-trust vote in December last year. If Jagan Reddy's party wins these seats, it will have bitten a chunk out of the 156 seats that the Congress had won in 2009 in the 294-member Assembly. Of the 18 Assembly seats, 16 were won by Congress in 2009 and two by erstwhile Praja Rajyam Party. Nellore Lok Sabha seat was also bagged by Congress in 2009.
Analysts also say that a result in favour of the YSR Congress may lead to desertions from the Congress and the main opposition, TDP. The Kiran Kumar Reddy-led government is surviving on a razor-thin majority of 151 in the 294-member assembly. Even if 10 MLAs cross over to Jagan's camp, the Congress government, despite support from the seven Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) MLAs, may collapse.
The Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister is however putting up a brave front and has said there is no threat to his government.
The results will also been keenly watched in Delhi. In 2004, the Congress had won 29 seats in Andhra Pradesh out of its overall tally of 145 seats in the Lok Sabha. This tally increased to 33 - out of 207 - in the current Lok Sabha. Andhra Pradesh sends 42 members to the Lok Sabha, and these polls are being seen as a curtain-raiser to the 2014 elections.
Its 294 member assembly also has a big impact of the upcoming Presidential polls, as it forms an important part of the electoral college. A big win for Jagan Mohan Reddy may compound the Congress' problems and make it more difficult to install a UPA-backed candidate in Rashtrapati Bhavan.
The Telangana Factor
Of the 18 assembly seats, eight are in Rayalaseema and nine in coastal Andhra Pradesh. Parkal is the only one seat going for by-poll in the Telangana region. Here, the YSR Congress candidate Konda Surekha had resigned as minister and MLA in support of Jagan Mohan Reddy. Though the Telangana sentiment is strong, the split of votes between the Telangana Rashtryia Samiti (TRS), which many believe has an edge, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to give the YSR Congress an advantage.
Enthused by their win in Mahbubnagar in the recent by-polls, the BJP is also hoping to do a repeat in Parkal. Pollsters predict a three-cornered fight between the TRS, BJP and YSR Congress. The Congress and Telugu Desam (TDP) are expected to come in at four and five.