The Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win a third consecutive term - but fall well short of its 'abki baar, 400 paar' target - in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, according to NDTV's poll of opinion polls. The BJP has historically fared poorly in the southern states - particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In 2019 it failed to win a seat in either, with vote shares of 3.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent. The big winner in Tamil Nadu is expected to be the INDIA bloc - led in the state by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) - with 33 seats. The AIADMK could get only four seats.