100 Days Of The Ukraine War: What Next? - 'Hot Mic' With Nidhi Razdan

Hi, this is Hot Mic and I'm Nidhi Razdan.

It's now been more than a 100 days since Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February, setting not just Europe, but the entire world into chaos and economic frenzy. A 100 days later, the conflict has devastated Ukraine's economy and its people. It is hurting Russia, and it's hurting all of us. The war was never supposed to have lasted this long, at least from Vladimir Putin's point of view.It is widely believed that he expected the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, to fall within days of the invasion. Instead, Ukrainian forces, aided by military supplies from the West, have held their own and even managed to turn back Russian forces in some key areas. But while Russian advances may have been slow, they are definitely making progress, a fact confirmed by President Zelensky of Ukraine himself. Marking the 100-day grim milestone, President Zelensky has said, Moscow is now in control of a fifth of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of the Donbass seized in 2014. That means 20% of the country is now under Russian control. Fighting has intensified in the east of Ukraine, where Moscow's forces are tightening their grip on the Donbas. Street battles are raging in the industrial hub of Severodonetsk in Lugansk, part of the Donbas.

Russia already controls about 80% of the strategic city, but its defenders are still putting up a stiff resistance. After being repelled from around the capital, President Putin's troops have set their sights on capturing eastern Ukraine, prompting warnings that this war could drag on. After meeting US President Joe Biden last week, the NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, warned that Ukraine's allies needed to brace for a grueling war of attrition and the long haul. However, he reiterated that NATO does not want direct confrontation with Russia. In terms of the human cost, there is no independent way to verify the claims and counterclaims at the moment. In his latest comments last week, President Zelensky said that tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed and that on the battlefield up to 100 Ukrainian soldiers are dying every day. In Mariupol alone, officials have reported more than 21,000 civilians dead.

Another city has seen roughly 1500 casualties, according to the Mayor. Government officials, UN agencies and others who carry out the grim task of counting the dead don't always get access to places where people have been killed. And Moscow has not really been releasing a lot of information about casualties among its forces and allies. And given no accounting of civilian deaths in areas under its control. In fact, Russia's last publicly released figures for its own forces came way back on the 25th of March when a Russian general told State media that 1,351 soldiers had been killed. Western observers, of course, claim that the real number is much higher. In April, the British government estimated that Russia had lost 15,000 forces. According to a report by the AP, a Western intelligence official has said last week that Russia is still taking casualties, but in smaller numbers. The official estimated that some 40,000 Russian troops have been wounded so far. Then there is the destruction and devastation on the ground. Ukraine's Parliamentary Commission on Human Rights says that Russia's military has destroyed nearly 38,000 residential buildings.It's rendered about 2,20,000 people homeless. And nearly 1,900 educational facilities straight from kindergarten to grade schools to universities have been damaged. 180 of those, completely ruined. Other infrastructure losses include 300 car and 50 rail bridges, 500 factories and 500 damaged hospitals. These are all Ukrainian figures. The World Health Organization has tallied about 296 attacks on hospitals, ambulances and medical workers in Ukraine since the war started. The UN refugee agency, the UNHCR, meanwhile, has estimated that about 6.8 million people have been driven out of Ukraine at some point during this conflict. But since fighting subsided in the area near Kyiv and elsewhere, Russian forces have also re-deployed to the east in the south. And so about 2.2 million people have actually returned to the country. The UN's International Organization for Migration estimates that as of the 23rd of May, there were more than 7.1 million internally displaced people. That is those who fled their homes but remained in the country. That's down from over 8 million in an earlier count. And then there is the economic cost. First, the economic cost to Russia.

The West has levied a host of retaliatory sanctions against Moscow, including on the crucial oil and gas sectors. And Europe is beginning to wean itself from its dependance on Russian energy. One expert, Evgeny Gontmakher and academic director of the European Dialogue, has counted more than 5000 targeted sanctions against Russia so far. Some $300 billion of Russian gold in foreign exchange reserves in the West have been frozen, and air traffic in the country dropped from 8.1 to 5.2 million passengers between January and March this year. Additionally, The Kyiv School of Economics has reported more than 1000 self-sanctioning companies who have curtailed their operations in Russia in the last few months. The MOEX Russia Stock Index has plunged by about a quarter since just before the invasion and is down nearly 40% from the start of the year. Russia's central bank said last week that annualized inflation has come in at 17.8% in April. Ukraine, meanwhile, has reported suffering a staggering economic blow, with 35% of the GDP wiped out by the war. Ukraine, a major agricultural producer, says it's not been able to export some 22 million tonnes of grain. It blames a backlog of shipments on Russian blockades or the capture of key ports by the Russians. In fact, Zelensky has accused Russia of stealing at least a half a million tons of grain during the course of this war. The war has, of course, had a major fallout on the world as well Inflation was already a problem in many countries and now that has been made worse with high food and high fuel prices. We're suffering here in India as a result of that as well. Crude oil prices, for example, in big cities like London and New York have risen by up to 25%, resulting in higher prices at the petrol pump and for an array of petroleum based products as well. Wheat supplies have been disrupted in African nations which imported 44% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine in the years immediately before the invasion. The UN says 1.4 billion people worldwide could be affected by shortages of grain and fertilizer from the country. While the US and the UK have been steadfast in their support to Ukraine, there is some friction that has now arisen with French President Emmanuel Macron trying to mediate a way out. His recent comments that Russia should not be humiliated over the invasion has led to a sharp retort from Ukraine. Ukraine's foreign minister said, “allies should better focus on how to put Russia in its place as it humiliates itself,” as he put it. Mr. Macron has repeatedly spoken to Mr. Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations. But clearly, it's a long and bloody road ahead.