Having everything you need close to your house, without needing to drive to reach it, might seem like an uncontroversial concept. But so-called 15-minute cities have become central to conspiracy theories about freedom and climate change. While the original idea is based on rethinking urban planning to make sure no one is traveling more than 15 minutes by bicycle or on foot to reach essential services, posts online have falsely conjured a dystopian vision where people are forcibly prevented from leaving their homes.
Now that idea has leaked into mainstream UK politics. During the Conservative Party's conference this week, Secretary of State for Transport Mark Harper told an audience that he was against "sinister" plans by local councils to "decide how often you go to the shops, and that they can ration who uses the roads and when" — echoing much of the online conspiratorial chatter about the policy. Here's how that happened.
What are 15-minute cities?
The term was initially coined in 2016 by Carlos Moreno, a professor at the Sorbonne in Paris, as a way of rethinking urban planning. In his original vision, nobody would be more than a short walk from essential services like doctors, shops or even their job. The idea had been adopted by several cities around the world, with the Mayor of Paris one of its most high-profile supporters, before the first conspiratorial posts began appearing in late 2022.
It is not a totally new idea; neighborhoods around the world that predate the mass adoption of the car were historically built this way. The modern concept has been recently promoted as part of efforts to reduce reliance on driving, especially in busy, congested places, and create more pleasant, self-sufficient communities.
What exactly are conspiracy theorists saying?
A coalition of anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists and far-right influencers have positioned the 15-minute city concept as a totalitarian plot. Social media posts have suggested the idea is part of a broader scheme by international bodies like the World Economic Forum, a frequent target for conspiratorial narratives.
These groups often make false claims about the policy, like the idea that people will be stopped from traveling more than 15 minutes away from their home.
How do low-traffic neighborhoods, or LTNs, figure into all of this?
Fifteen-minute cities are often lumped together with low-traffic neighborhoods, or LTNs for short, a concept that originates in the UK and was popularized during Covid-19. Allowing streets to be blocked off for pedestrian use, conspiracy theorists have come to see them as part of a broader "war on drivers" designed to curtail their freedom.
Other recent road policies like low-emission zones, which set tougher standards for petrol and diesel engines in some areas to reduce air pollution, have also been targeted by the same groups.
Where did opposition to 15-minute cities come from?
Some of the first viral posts about the theory centered on the city of Oxford in the UK. Measures to deal with notorious traffic problems faced local resistance. Much of the outrage centered on the town council's plan to reduce traffic on certain through-roads, offering local residents permits for a specific number of car trips on these roads, as well as a separate proposal to create local amenities and community centers as part of a 15-minute cities plan.
Protesters demonstrate against 15-minute cities on Feb. 18 in Oxford, England.
Local campaigners point to a December 2022 tweet by Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson, an influential voice among the far-right, attacking 15-minute cities for supercharging the conspiracy theories associated with the campaign. Variations of this view would subsequently pop up elsewhere in the country, with London, Bath and even the village of Thetford hosting their own protest movements.
But the seed of this movement was arguably planted during the Covid pandemic. Paranoia about a "climate lockdown" began to grow online in September 2020, after pre-existing climate skeptics began to spread the false idea that the pandemic was simply a precursor to a wider plot to control people and force them to stay in their homes. Fifteen-minute cities fit neatly into this narrative.
Why are 15-minute cities and LTNs important now?
The UK government has recently shifted its position on Net Zero and climate change policy. The Conservative Party's rhetoric on climate has been ambitious and included measures like a 2030 deadline for sales of new petrol and diesel cars, as well as policies to improve insulation and encourage more travel by walking and cycling.
But after a surprise by-election victory in the outer London borough of Uxbridge over the summer, in a campaign that centered on the controversial ULEZ (Ultra-Low Emission Zone) policy, the government began to lean into the rhetoric that helped them secure the victory. Last month, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made a speech walking back some of the government's Net Zero commitments, including pushing back the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars to 2035.
Polling suggests that while British people support environmental policy, they are very concerned about the cost of living, so the government has sought to focus on claims that Net Zero plans will make life more expensive, even when there's little evidence that this is the case. Polls also suggest the party is facing a disastrous election next year, and Sunak is seeking to maintain the support of some of his party's core voters, including car owners, who tend to live in suburban and rural areas outside Labour strongholds in the city centers, to avoid a wipeout.
There are more clues in what government ministers told media after Harper's speech, revealing the influence of online chatter on the government. "This is coming up in discussions on doorsteps up and down the country, it's coming up in discussions on forums online," said Andrew Bowie, a minister in the department for Energy Security and Net Zero, on BBC radio's PM program. "If people are concerned about it we need to address those concerns."
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
