85% Chances Of 'Super El Nino' Next Year, Here's How It Will Impact Southeast Asia

El Nino, or "the little boy" in Spanish, are weather conditions which are characterised by a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It causes heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and East Africa. Now, there is a possibility of a "super" El Nino in the Northern Hemisphere next year, with a probability for it to be historically strong, as per a report in Reuters. 

The most recent predictions from the climate prediction centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through November to January, there is a 75-85 per cent chance that it will be classified as a "strong" event, which is defined as average equatorial sea-surface temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius over a particular area of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This could have a major effect on global weather patterns and disasters. Additionally, there is a 30 per cent possibility that the temperature would rise above 2 degrees Celsius, mirroring the catastrophic heat, droughts, and flooding that the world saw during the historically powerful El Nino episodes of 1997-1998 and 2015-16.

This phenomenon could also have an impact on the economy and agriculture production. Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at space-tech company Maxar, told Reuters, "As El Nino strengthens to strong status, there is a good likelihood it will have an impact on the upcoming growing season for the southern hemisphere crop production areas. This includes crops in South Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia and Brazil where the weather is typically drier and warmer than normal."

The Earth's jet streams, which regulate the distribution of monsoon rainfall throughout the Indian subcontinent, are more likely to be impacted by an exceptionally strong El Nino because it causes more significant and abrupt changes to the surface temperature. Thus, there is a greater chance that this event may affect global precipitation and possibly winter temperatures in the long run, as per The Weather Channel.

India's reservoirs continue to have water shortages, which might have an impact on agricultural output in the upcoming season as the southwest monsoon exited the country with below-average overall rainfall. The India Meteorological Department, however, said positive factors, primarily the Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation mitigated some of the deficiency caused by El Nino conditions and gave "near normal" precipitation. However, the report added that the rainfall is expected to be "normal" throughout South India during this northeast monsoon season, which runs from the second part of October to December, even with the interference of El Nino.