File photo: Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah walks before an interview with media at his residence in Kabul
New Delhi:
The Afghan Presidential polls are almost certainly heading for a run-off between the top two contenders, Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, preliminary results showed on Saturday. None of the eight candidates have got a decisive victory.
The Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced the preliminary results in Kabul today. Dr Abdullah is on top with 44.9 per cent votes, Dr Ghani is in second place with 31.5 per cent and Dr Zalmai Rassoul is at 11.5 per cent of the vote. Final preliminary results will be announced on May 14 after a period of decisions on complaints made. But mathematically, it seems impossible for Dr Abdullah to make up the more than five per cent he needs. The run-off can now only be avoided if Dr Ghani withdraws. But that scenario seems unlikely with both teams denying any talks on a coalition government, so far.
The IEC also said the run-off if needed will be held on June 7. That means a new President will not be known till July.
HIGH TURNOUT DESPITE TALIBAN THREATS
The IEC head Ahmad Yousuf Nouristani confirmed earlier estimates saying nearly 6.9 million people voted. 64 per cent of them were male and a creditable 36 per cent were women. Mr Nouristani also announced 2,34,674 votes from 525 sites in 31 of the 34 provinces were invalidated and not included in this preliminary result. Another 444 polling stations with problems were referred to the Independent Election Complaints Commission for a final decision.
WHO ARE THE FRONT-RUNNERS?
Abdullah Abdullah, an opthamologist, was a close aide and spokesperson for legendary Northern Alliance Commander Ahmed Shah Massoud. Massoud was killed by Arabs posing as journalists two days before 9/11. Dr Abdullah was Finance Minister till he quit in 2005. He ran against President Karzai in the 2009 elections and pulled out off a run-off saying he had no faith in the fairness of the polls. Half Tajik and half Pashtun, predictably his main support base is in areas where Tajiks dominate in the North. His second Vice Presidential running mate Mohammed Mohaqiq has pulled in Hazara votes in central provinces dominated by the tribe (Tajiks account for about 27 per cent and Hazaras nine per cent of the population).
Dr Ashraf Ghani got his doctorate in Anthropology from Columbia University. He subsequently worked as a World Bank economist for a decade and taught in Johns Hopkins and Kabul Universities. He was also Afghanistan's Finance Minister and was responsible for introducing a new currency as well as reconstruction and aid.
Dr Ghani has also been head of the security transition and is known for his administrative capabilities. An ethnic Pashtun of the influential Ahmadzai tribe, he has won mostly in the southern and eastern parts of the country where Pashtuns are in majority. His first Vice Presidential running mate, the infamous General Abdul Rashid Dostum, has it seems also helped pull in a significant number of ethnic Uzbek votes (Pashtuns are nearly 42 per cent and Uzbeks are about nine per cent of the estimated 32 million people). In the 2009 elections, he came a distant fourth with barely three per cent of the vote. Since then, he has embarked on visits and rallies to all the provinces in the hope of distancing himself from the image of a technocratic theoretician.
LOBBYING FOR VOTE TRANSFERS
Now, the top two candidates will try and cement endorsements from the other six contenders who are out of the race and the votes they could help transfer to them in the expected run-off. Dr Abdullah has already been in talks with Zalmai Rassoul, the third placed candidate. Dr Rassoul, also a former Foreign Minister and thought to be President Karzai's favoured candidate, is the only other person apart from the top two to win a province. An ethnic Pashtun he won the southern Kandahar province. The fourth placed former warlord and islamic scholar Professor Abdo Rabe Rasool Sayyaf could also be a key king-maker.
The Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced the preliminary results in Kabul today. Dr Abdullah is on top with 44.9 per cent votes, Dr Ghani is in second place with 31.5 per cent and Dr Zalmai Rassoul is at 11.5 per cent of the vote. Final preliminary results will be announced on May 14 after a period of decisions on complaints made. But mathematically, it seems impossible for Dr Abdullah to make up the more than five per cent he needs. The run-off can now only be avoided if Dr Ghani withdraws. But that scenario seems unlikely with both teams denying any talks on a coalition government, so far.
The IEC also said the run-off if needed will be held on June 7. That means a new President will not be known till July.
HIGH TURNOUT DESPITE TALIBAN THREATS
The IEC head Ahmad Yousuf Nouristani confirmed earlier estimates saying nearly 6.9 million people voted. 64 per cent of them were male and a creditable 36 per cent were women. Mr Nouristani also announced 2,34,674 votes from 525 sites in 31 of the 34 provinces were invalidated and not included in this preliminary result. Another 444 polling stations with problems were referred to the Independent Election Complaints Commission for a final decision.
WHO ARE THE FRONT-RUNNERS?
Abdullah Abdullah, an opthamologist, was a close aide and spokesperson for legendary Northern Alliance Commander Ahmed Shah Massoud. Massoud was killed by Arabs posing as journalists two days before 9/11. Dr Abdullah was Finance Minister till he quit in 2005. He ran against President Karzai in the 2009 elections and pulled out off a run-off saying he had no faith in the fairness of the polls. Half Tajik and half Pashtun, predictably his main support base is in areas where Tajiks dominate in the North. His second Vice Presidential running mate Mohammed Mohaqiq has pulled in Hazara votes in central provinces dominated by the tribe (Tajiks account for about 27 per cent and Hazaras nine per cent of the population).
Dr Ashraf Ghani got his doctorate in Anthropology from Columbia University. He subsequently worked as a World Bank economist for a decade and taught in Johns Hopkins and Kabul Universities. He was also Afghanistan's Finance Minister and was responsible for introducing a new currency as well as reconstruction and aid.
Dr Ghani has also been head of the security transition and is known for his administrative capabilities. An ethnic Pashtun of the influential Ahmadzai tribe, he has won mostly in the southern and eastern parts of the country where Pashtuns are in majority. His first Vice Presidential running mate, the infamous General Abdul Rashid Dostum, has it seems also helped pull in a significant number of ethnic Uzbek votes (Pashtuns are nearly 42 per cent and Uzbeks are about nine per cent of the estimated 32 million people). In the 2009 elections, he came a distant fourth with barely three per cent of the vote. Since then, he has embarked on visits and rallies to all the provinces in the hope of distancing himself from the image of a technocratic theoretician.
LOBBYING FOR VOTE TRANSFERS
Now, the top two candidates will try and cement endorsements from the other six contenders who are out of the race and the votes they could help transfer to them in the expected run-off. Dr Abdullah has already been in talks with Zalmai Rassoul, the third placed candidate. Dr Rassoul, also a former Foreign Minister and thought to be President Karzai's favoured candidate, is the only other person apart from the top two to win a province. An ethnic Pashtun he won the southern Kandahar province. The fourth placed former warlord and islamic scholar Professor Abdo Rabe Rasool Sayyaf could also be a key king-maker.
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