Islamabad:
The discovery of Osama bin Laden by American commandos close to the Pakistani capital dealt a devastating blow to the Pakistani military and its intelligence service and set off a fevered round of speculation about how Bin Laden could have been hiding virtually under their noses in a small city that housed military garrisons.
It was amply clear on Monday that the Pakistani military was experiencing a gamut of shock and embarrassment. Pakistan's official statement, slow in coming, was clearly calculated to put the best face on a moment that threatens to reset relations with the United States.
But the United States' preoccupation with Pakistan -- a nuclear-armed state with rising levels of militancy -- revolves around more than Bin Laden, important as he was, and officials on both sides may seek to avoid a sharp turn toward hostility.
Not least, the United States would like Pakistani cooperation in the continuing fight against terrorism and in ending the war in Afghanistan at a moment when Bin Laden's capture was bound to alter the debate about whether the United States should withdraw from a costly nine-year war.
American officials stopped well short of accusing Pakistan of sheltering Bin Laden, but they strongly indicated that they would want answers about the extent of the network in Pakistan that allowed Bin Laden to live and hide in apparent comfort for so long.
"It's inconceivable that Bin Laden did not have a support system in the country that allowed him to remain there for an extended period of time," John O. Brennan, the president's top counterterrorism official, said at a White House briefing on Monday.
"I am not going to speculate about what type of support he might have had on an official basis inside of Pakistan," he added. "We are closely talking to the Pakistanis right now, and again, we are leaving open opportunities to continue to pursue whatever leads might be out there."
At a Pentagon briefing in Washington on Monday, a senior Defense Department official said, "We have no indications that the Pakistanis were aware that Osama Bin Laden was at the compound in Abbottabad," the city where he was killed, about an hour's drive from the capital.
Similarly, a former senior C.I.A. official who closely followed the hunt for Bin Laden said he had heard of no evidence that Bin Laden was being protected by the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's spy agency. He called speculation on the subject premature.
"I would be very surprised if he was under ISI protection," said the former official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He said that the ISI probably knew the identity of the owner of the large compound where Bin Laden was discovered, but not that Bin Laden was hiding there. He said many religiously conservative Pakistanis had a favorable view of Bin Laden.
But others were deeply skeptical, noting that Bin Laden was hiding virtually next door to a military academy.
Some said that at worst, rogue ISI officers or former officers might be involved. But others saw a darker conspiracy.
"Someone knew," Maj. Gen. James R. Helmly, who was the top American officer in Pakistan from mid-2006 to mid-2008, said in a telephone interview from Georgia, where he is now retired.
"Whether it's in the top echelons of the ISI is anyone's guess," he said. "But if someone is building a big ostentatious project like that, and if it's like where I live, people are going to say, 'I wonder who's living there?' "
Some American counterterrorism officials said it was almost inconceivable that Pakistan's security services would be in the dark about the residents of such a compound. "It would be a major intelligence lapse by Pakistani military and police not to know what was going on there," said Seth G. Jones, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation who until February worked on Afghanistan and Pakistan issues for United States Special Operations Command.
Pakistani analysts expressed puzzlement that while the Pakistani government had issued a statement acknowledging Bin Laden's capture, the military and intelligence service were strangely silent.
"If Bin Laden's presence was not known to Pakistan's security agencies when he was located close to important military installation, it will be viewed as their incompetence or overconfidence," Hasan Askari Rizvi, a military analyst in Lahore, said in an e-mail message. "If they knew about his presence but did not take action, this will raise questions about the agenda of Pakistan's security agencies for fighting terrorism. "
Some senior American military and counterterrorism officials said that the Obama administration could use the moment to prod Pakistan to take more aggressive actions against militant groups within its borders.
"It has the potential to further sour relations or, for the United States, it could be an opportunity to leverage this for more cooperation," said Juan Zarate, a top counterterrorism official under President George W. Bush. "The Pakistanis are cowed and chagrined."
A Pakistani security official confirmed that Pakistan was informed only after the raid was over, and said that the helicopters used in the operation would have flown so close to the ground that they could evade radar detection. The compound had not been under Pakistani surveillance, he said. He spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with the rules of his agency.
The security official seemed grateful at least for American officials who noted that Pakistani intelligence cooperation had contributed to the operation, and indicated the relationship would continue despite growing distrust between the C.I.A. and the ISI.
"The operation depended on intelligence input," the security official said. "The mere fact that the cooperation has been acknowledged means the relationship will survive," he said.
Certainly events after the operation indicate a level of cooperation. Intelligence service personnel took charge of Bin Laden's remaining family, including women and children, and were questioning them for further intelligence, a security official said. Members of the military removed a crashed helicopter from the scene.
The Pakistani military remained silent, although it has been outspoken over drone attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas and has denounced operations in which American military forces have crossed into Pakistan's territory.
Indeed, with Bin Laden's death in Pakistan, officials here have lost much of their hard-fought bargaining position as they demand that the United States reduce its use of unmanned drones to attack targets in the tribal areas, and cut down the number of undercover agents and C.I.A. operatives in Pakistan. That target seems to be out of reach now that the United States has shown the importance and accuracy of its covert operations in Pakistan, analysts said.
"There is lot of confusion in Pakistan that how to react to this operation," Mr. Rizvi, the military analyst, said. Over all, politicians will be happy but they will not express it publicly because they are afraid of a backlash from Islamist sympathizers, he said.
The discovery of Bin Laden, after years of Pakistan denying that he was hiding here, will also put more pressure on Pakistan to cooperate further and find more Qaeda members in Pakistan, he said.
"Now Osama's presence close to military installations in Pakistan raises whether this operation was with the involvement of Pakistani security agencies and whether Pakistan knows his presence," Mr. Rizvi said, adding, "If no, it is a question of incompetence, and if yes, then it shows Pakistan was playing a double game."
It was amply clear on Monday that the Pakistani military was experiencing a gamut of shock and embarrassment. Pakistan's official statement, slow in coming, was clearly calculated to put the best face on a moment that threatens to reset relations with the United States.
But the United States' preoccupation with Pakistan -- a nuclear-armed state with rising levels of militancy -- revolves around more than Bin Laden, important as he was, and officials on both sides may seek to avoid a sharp turn toward hostility.
Not least, the United States would like Pakistani cooperation in the continuing fight against terrorism and in ending the war in Afghanistan at a moment when Bin Laden's capture was bound to alter the debate about whether the United States should withdraw from a costly nine-year war.
American officials stopped well short of accusing Pakistan of sheltering Bin Laden, but they strongly indicated that they would want answers about the extent of the network in Pakistan that allowed Bin Laden to live and hide in apparent comfort for so long.
"It's inconceivable that Bin Laden did not have a support system in the country that allowed him to remain there for an extended period of time," John O. Brennan, the president's top counterterrorism official, said at a White House briefing on Monday.
"I am not going to speculate about what type of support he might have had on an official basis inside of Pakistan," he added. "We are closely talking to the Pakistanis right now, and again, we are leaving open opportunities to continue to pursue whatever leads might be out there."
At a Pentagon briefing in Washington on Monday, a senior Defense Department official said, "We have no indications that the Pakistanis were aware that Osama Bin Laden was at the compound in Abbottabad," the city where he was killed, about an hour's drive from the capital.
Similarly, a former senior C.I.A. official who closely followed the hunt for Bin Laden said he had heard of no evidence that Bin Laden was being protected by the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's spy agency. He called speculation on the subject premature.
"I would be very surprised if he was under ISI protection," said the former official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He said that the ISI probably knew the identity of the owner of the large compound where Bin Laden was discovered, but not that Bin Laden was hiding there. He said many religiously conservative Pakistanis had a favorable view of Bin Laden.
But others were deeply skeptical, noting that Bin Laden was hiding virtually next door to a military academy.
Some said that at worst, rogue ISI officers or former officers might be involved. But others saw a darker conspiracy.
"Someone knew," Maj. Gen. James R. Helmly, who was the top American officer in Pakistan from mid-2006 to mid-2008, said in a telephone interview from Georgia, where he is now retired.
"Whether it's in the top echelons of the ISI is anyone's guess," he said. "But if someone is building a big ostentatious project like that, and if it's like where I live, people are going to say, 'I wonder who's living there?' "
Some American counterterrorism officials said it was almost inconceivable that Pakistan's security services would be in the dark about the residents of such a compound. "It would be a major intelligence lapse by Pakistani military and police not to know what was going on there," said Seth G. Jones, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation who until February worked on Afghanistan and Pakistan issues for United States Special Operations Command.
Pakistani analysts expressed puzzlement that while the Pakistani government had issued a statement acknowledging Bin Laden's capture, the military and intelligence service were strangely silent.
"If Bin Laden's presence was not known to Pakistan's security agencies when he was located close to important military installation, it will be viewed as their incompetence or overconfidence," Hasan Askari Rizvi, a military analyst in Lahore, said in an e-mail message. "If they knew about his presence but did not take action, this will raise questions about the agenda of Pakistan's security agencies for fighting terrorism. "
Some senior American military and counterterrorism officials said that the Obama administration could use the moment to prod Pakistan to take more aggressive actions against militant groups within its borders.
"It has the potential to further sour relations or, for the United States, it could be an opportunity to leverage this for more cooperation," said Juan Zarate, a top counterterrorism official under President George W. Bush. "The Pakistanis are cowed and chagrined."
A Pakistani security official confirmed that Pakistan was informed only after the raid was over, and said that the helicopters used in the operation would have flown so close to the ground that they could evade radar detection. The compound had not been under Pakistani surveillance, he said. He spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with the rules of his agency.
The security official seemed grateful at least for American officials who noted that Pakistani intelligence cooperation had contributed to the operation, and indicated the relationship would continue despite growing distrust between the C.I.A. and the ISI.
"The operation depended on intelligence input," the security official said. "The mere fact that the cooperation has been acknowledged means the relationship will survive," he said.
Certainly events after the operation indicate a level of cooperation. Intelligence service personnel took charge of Bin Laden's remaining family, including women and children, and were questioning them for further intelligence, a security official said. Members of the military removed a crashed helicopter from the scene.
The Pakistani military remained silent, although it has been outspoken over drone attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas and has denounced operations in which American military forces have crossed into Pakistan's territory.
Indeed, with Bin Laden's death in Pakistan, officials here have lost much of their hard-fought bargaining position as they demand that the United States reduce its use of unmanned drones to attack targets in the tribal areas, and cut down the number of undercover agents and C.I.A. operatives in Pakistan. That target seems to be out of reach now that the United States has shown the importance and accuracy of its covert operations in Pakistan, analysts said.
"There is lot of confusion in Pakistan that how to react to this operation," Mr. Rizvi, the military analyst, said. Over all, politicians will be happy but they will not express it publicly because they are afraid of a backlash from Islamist sympathizers, he said.
The discovery of Bin Laden, after years of Pakistan denying that he was hiding here, will also put more pressure on Pakistan to cooperate further and find more Qaeda members in Pakistan, he said.
"Now Osama's presence close to military installations in Pakistan raises whether this operation was with the involvement of Pakistani security agencies and whether Pakistan knows his presence," Mr. Rizvi said, adding, "If no, it is a question of incompetence, and if yes, then it shows Pakistan was playing a double game."
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