London, United Kingdom: Leaving the European Union would tip Britain into a "year-long recession", finance minister George Osborne warned today as campaigning stepped up a month from a referendum on membership of the bloc.
Analysis released by the Treasury argued that leaving would cause "an immediate and profound economic shock" to Britain and damage economic growth.
"With exactly one month to go to the referendum, the British people must ask themselves this question: can we knowingly vote for a recession?" Osborne said in an accompanying statement.
The analysis gave two scenarios if voters chose to leave the EU: a "shock scenario" in which gross domestic product would be 3.6 per cent lower than it otherwise would have been after two years, and a "severe shock scenario" in which it would be 6 per cent lower.
Osborne and Prime Minister David Cameron have made dire predictions of the effect of a so-called Brexit as they campaign for Britain to remain in the EU.
Osborne's campaign has announced that house prices would fall and grocery prices rise, while the Bank of England governor Mark Carney and the International Monetary Fund have warned of negative consequences for the British economy.
The Vote Leave campaign has accused the other side of scare tactics.
Iain Duncan Smith, a senior member of Cameron's Conservative party who campaigns in favour of Brexit, dismissed the Treasury's analysis as "not an honest assessment".
"The Treasury has consistently got its predictions wrong in the past. This Treasury document is not an honest assessment but a deeply biased view of the future and it should not be believed by anyone," Duncan Smith said.
Opinion polls suggest that the "Remain" camp is likely to prevail.
An average of the last six polls by research project What UK Thinks gives "Remain" an eight-point lead over the "Leave" camp, on 54 per cent versus 46 per cent.
Analysis released by the Treasury argued that leaving would cause "an immediate and profound economic shock" to Britain and damage economic growth.
"With exactly one month to go to the referendum, the British people must ask themselves this question: can we knowingly vote for a recession?" Osborne said in an accompanying statement.
Osborne and Prime Minister David Cameron have made dire predictions of the effect of a so-called Brexit as they campaign for Britain to remain in the EU.
Advertisement
The Vote Leave campaign has accused the other side of scare tactics.
Advertisement
"The Treasury has consistently got its predictions wrong in the past. This Treasury document is not an honest assessment but a deeply biased view of the future and it should not be believed by anyone," Duncan Smith said.
Advertisement
An average of the last six polls by research project What UK Thinks gives "Remain" an eight-point lead over the "Leave" camp, on 54 per cent versus 46 per cent.
COMMENTS
Advertisement
Apple Changes Its App Store Policy In EU After Probe TikTok Withdraws Rewards Feature From 'Lite' Version In France, Spain European Union Approves Humanitarian Aid To India Due To Recent Floods Vandalism At Kolkata Hospital Where Doctor Was Raped, Tear Gas Fired Starbucks' Indian-Origin CEO, Recently Fired, Never Worked Past 6 pm 150 mg Semen In Kolkata Doctor's Body, Suspect Gang-Rape: Parents To Court Delhi Airport Becomes 1st To Achieve Net Zero Carbon Emission Status US Welcomes India's Engagement In War Between Russia, Ukraine Google Says Iran Hackers Target Trump, Kamala Harris Campaigns Track Latest News Live on NDTV.com and get news updates from India and around the world.