Could Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump If Joe Biden Drops Out? What Opinion Polls Say

Despite US President Joe Biden's repeated assertion that he has no plans to quit the presidential race, his deputy Kamala Harris is emerging as his alternative for Democrats. Harris' recognition, policy experience and ability to connect with key voter groups make her an attractive candidate against Republican nominee Donald Trump, top democrats say. 

But can the 59-year-old defeat Donald Trump, should Joe Biden drop out? 

After what was an abysmal first presidential debate between the current and former US Presidents, critics, political observers and voices among the Democrats suggested it would be better if Biden were replaced. And the first name that struck everyone's mind was Kamala Harris. Polls suggest her candidacy could be a game-changer for the Democratic Party. 

The Vice-President may perform better than Biden against former President Trump, multiple polls say. Harris trailed Trump by only two percentage points, 47% to 45% while Biden lagged by six points, according to a CNN poll released on July 2.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll found her tied with Trump at 42% each. The polls showed that Harris did better than Biden with independent voters and women.

However, experts are sceptical about these early polls. They think voter opinions would change if Biden dropped out and other Democrats joined the race. A pollster close to Biden's campaign thinks Harris might appeal to more voters, but isn't sure if she would make a big difference. They believe polls this early don't mean much. Harris does well with young voters and minorities – important groups for Democrats. But it is unclear if she would boost turnout among these voters. For now, it's a "wait and see" situation.

During NBC's Meet the Press Sunday, Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) suggested that President Biden either secure a resounding victory or cede the nomination to a candidate capable of doing so. Kamala Harris could “very well win overwhelmingly” against Trump, he added. 

Jamal Simmons, a seasoned Democratic strategist and former communications director for Kamala Harris, warns against “underestimating” the Vice President. In an interview with the BBC, Mr Simmons stated that Harris is a force to be reckoned with, whether she is supporting Biden or leading the ticket herself. “She is somebody, whom Republicans and the Trump campaign need to take seriously,” he said. 

Republicans are also acknowledging Kamala Harris' potential to succeed Joe Biden, with Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) saying that a Harris nomination would mean a "dramatically different race," characterising her as a "vigorous" candidate.