Canada Elections 2025: Possible Outcomes If No Party Wins A Majority

Canada will go to the polls on April 28 in what's a tight race between the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, and the Conservative Party, headed by Pierre Poilievre. While some national polls give the Liberals a slight edge, others show both parties neck and neck -- especially in key battlegrounds such as British Columbia.

A hung parliament, where no single party crosses the 170-seat threshold to form the government, is a possibility.

Who Governs?

Contrary to popular belief, the party with the most seats doesn't automatically form the government. In Canada's parliamentary system, the key factor is who can command the confidence of the House, meaning the ability to survive key votes, including budgets and motions of non-confidence.

If no party wins a majority, the current Prime Minister - Mark Carney in this case - has the right to remain in power and try to form a workable government, even if the Liberals don't come in first.

This phenomenon was discussed during the 2008 political events in Canada, where the role of the Governor General and the rights of the incumbent Prime Minister were included in debates about government formation. 

John Courtney, Professor Emeritus in Political Studies at the University of Saskatchewan, said, "The Governor General accepts advice from one person, and one person only - the prime minister."

Possible Outcomes

There are three main paths Canada could take if no majority emerges:

• Minority Government - This is the most common outcome. The leading party governs alone, striking deals with others on a case-by-case basis. It makes passing legislation harder and can lead to early elections.
• Confidence-And-Supply Agreement - In this arrangement, a smaller party agrees to support the government on confidence votes and budgets - like the 2022 deal between the Liberals and the NDP, which lasted two years.
• Coalition Government - Rare in Canada, but not impossible. This would mean two or more parties forming a joint government, possibly sharing cabinet roles. The last serious attempt was in 2008 when the Liberals and NDP tried to form a coalition backed by the Bloc Quebecois, which ultimately collapsed under political pressure.

Canada's 2025 election comes at a time when national pride is running high. This is partly because of pressure from US President Donald Trump's trade moves and strong political statements.