Prize-Winning Book Exposes Flaws In Elon Musk's Mars Dream

Billionaire Elon Musk aims to establish a human settlement on Mars in the next three decades. Experts, however, have questioned its feasibility.

Can humans survive Mars' hostile environment? How will we overcome challenges like toxic soil, weak gravity, and high radiation? In their award-winning book, A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through?, authors Kelly and Zach Weinersmith explore these critical questions, ultimately concluding the SpaceX CEO's vision is far from realistic.

The book, published in November 2023 and winner of the 2024 Royal Society Trivedi Science Book Prize, explores the grim realities of living on Mars. “Leaving a 2-degree-C warmer Earth for Mars would be like leaving a messy room to live in a toxic waste dump,” the authors say.

Kelly Weinersmith, a biologist at Rice University, and her co-author husband, Zach Weinersmith, a cartoonist, highlight major hurdles for human survival on Mars. The planet's thin atmosphere, high radiation levels, and toxic soil laden with perchlorates pose severe threats to human health. Prolonged exposure could lead to hormone disruption and developmental abnormalities, especially in children.

Moreover, Mars' weak gravity – just 40 per cent of Earth's – could worsen bone loss and muscle degradation, making childbirth and other biological processes potentially catastrophic. “We have very little relevant data for how adults will do, let alone how having babies would work out,” Ms Kelly told CNN in an interview.

Mars lacks a strong magnetic field and has a thin atmosphere, offering little protection against cosmic and solar radiation, according to the authors. Prolonged exposure could increase cancer risks and lead to cognitive decline. The planet also experiences global dust storms, extreme temperature fluctuations, and dangerous airborne particles like regolith, which can damage equipment and harm humans. Mars' isolation – an average of 225 million km from Earth – means communication delays of up to 24 minutes each way. This isolation could worsen mental health issues and limit the ability to manage emergencies.

The authors also stress the lack of a clear legal framework for space settlement. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty provides vague guidelines, it does not address modern concerns about resource use or territorial claims. With geopolitical tensions between the US and China escalating, the authors foresee a potential space race over Martian resources and territory.

Elon Musk's vision of a self-sustaining colony for one million people relies on advanced technologies, including closed-loop agricultural systems and sturdy infrastructure to combat Mars' harsh environment.

However, the Weinersmiths claim these systems are in their infancy. “If you want to do this, it's got to be the slow work of generations to build up to a point where we could be self-sustaining on Mars,” they told the outlet.

While the authors remain sceptical of Mars colonisation, they support incremental advances in space exploration. “I would love to see, for example, a research station on the moon where we have rodent colonies, and we see how they do when they go through a couple of generations. Maybe in our lifetime, we'll see people land on Mars, do some exploration and come home, that could happen,” Ms Kelly suggested.

The authors warn against rushing into large-scale settlement plans without fully understanding the risks.

For now, Mr Musk's Mars dream may remain just a dream.