Scientists predict that influenza is the pathogen that will most likely start a new pandemic soon. The results of an international study, which will be released the following weekend, indicate that 57 per cent of leading disease specialists now predict that a strain of the flu virus will be the source of the next major infectious disease outbreak that strikes the world, as per a report in the Guardian.
The idea is based on long-term study depicting that influenza is constantly evolving and mutating, Cologne University's Jon Salmanton-Garcia, who carried out the study, said. "Each winter influenza appears. You could describe these outbreaks as little pandemics. They are more or less controlled because the different strains that cause them are not virulent enough - but that will not necessarily be the case for ever," he said.
Notably, the findings of the survey will be revealed at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Congress in Barcelona next weekend.
According to 21 per cent of the experts included in the study, a virus known as Disease X that is currently unknown to science is likely the second most likely source of a pandemic, after influenza. According to scientists, the next pandemic will be brought on by an unidentified microorganism that will emerge out of nowhere.
Disease X is not a specific disease but is the name of a potential virus similar to COVID-19. It could be a new agent, a virus, a bacterium, or a fungus without any known treatment. The global health body has categorised the unknown diseases among COVID-19, Ebola, Lassa fever, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), Nipah, and Zika, which have already caused widespread fatalities during outbreaks.
The Lancet said that the WHO formally started using the term in 2018, which represents the next unknown disease of epidemic potential.
A WHO report from November 2022 mentions that Disease X is included to indicate an unknown pathogen that could cause a serious international epidemic. According to WHO, worldwide, the number of potential pathogens is very large, while the resources for disease research and development (R&D) are limited.
