Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte once cursed the pope. (File photo)
Here is a word rarely used to describe Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte: soft.
He is famous for lighting rhetorical fireworks where a single match might suffice. He used a slang term that translates as "son of a whore" while blasting President Barack Obama. He offered the European Union an unequivocal (unprintable) "(expletive) you."
That's why it's worth pausing to consider the measured language ahead of his four-day visit to Beijing that begins Tuesday. A man who once cursed the pope and called for mass killing of criminals said he plans to talk "softly" to secure a "soft landing" for Sino-Philippine ties. "We want to talk about friendship," Duterte, once nicknamed "the Death Squad Mayor," told Chinese media.
Duterte's whispers of friendship will please China - and rile the United States. That's because this week's visit has the potential to reshape the regional balance of power, complicating the Obama administration's "pivot" to Asia and bolstering Beijing.
Duterte will tour the smoggy Chinese capital, visiting with Filipino residents, signing trade deals and securing some critical face time with President Xi Jinping. Duterte stated goal is to "reset" relations with China, ending several years of bitter fighting over rival maritime claims in the South China Sea.
Duterte's position on the South China Sea is not clear. During his presidential campaign, he vowed to ride a jet ski to the Scarborough Shoal, which China seized in 2012, to personally plant the Philippine flag. This week, he struck a more careful tone: "You cannot expect me to ride [a jet ski]. I don't even know how to swim," he said in an interview with Al Jazeera.
Indeed, for all his tough talk, Duterte seems increasingly willing to strike a deal. When an international court ruled against China's claims to the South China Sea, Duterte did not push the matter. Instead, he's moved to diffuse the issue, promising, for instance, to fight for the rights of Filipino fishermen by engaging, not antagonizing, the Chinese.
Beijing can offer a lot in terms of trade and investment, including money to help Duterte's bloody domestic campaign against suspected drug dealers and users. While the West has criticized Duterte's self-described "drug war," China has stayed mum. A Chinese tycoon stepped in to fund a "mega" drug rehabilitation center. There may be more cash to come.
Finding a South China Sea "win" will be tougher. Duterte promised to get Filipino fisherman back to waters near the Scarborough Shoal. Though Beijing won't cede ground on sovereignty claims, it could allow limited fishing access, handing Duterte a domestic victory and putting China in compliance with parts of the tribunal ruling, albeit in a roundabout way.
The question is what Beijing wants in return. China will likely ask for joint exploration of contested waters, but its broader goals are geo-strategic.
Beijing does not want the U.S. military to expand its presence in Asia. Over the last few months, Duterte has repeatedly expressed similar views. Duterte called for the withdrawal of U.S. special forces from the southern island of Mindanao and the cancellation of joint maritime patrols and U.S.-Philippine military exercises. He's also talked about closer military ties with China and Russia.
It's not yet clear if Duterte will do his own pivot away from Washington, or if it's just talk. The vast majority of Filipinos still hold the United States in high esteem, and Washington continues to give the country financial and military support.
Even Duterte allies, such as former President Fidel Ramos, have questioned his sudden shift in allegiance. "Are we throwing away decades of military partnership, tactical proficiency, compatible weaponry, predictable logistics and soldier-to-soldier camaraderie, just like that?" he asked in a recent letter.
The answer to that question, and much else, depends on what Duterte dares to say next.
© 2016 The Washington Post
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