Goldman Sachs Predicts AI Could Replace 300 Million Jobs

With recent advancements in artificial intelligence, people are increasingly worried that powerful technology may eliminate several jobs in the future. Now, a report by Goldman Sachs predicts that as many as 300 million jobs could be affected by generative AI. The report, as per BBC, says that AI could potentially replace the equivalent of around 300 million (30 crores) full-time jobs.

''If generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, the labour market could face significant disruption. Using data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work,'' the investment banker said in a research note titled 'The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth.'

However, the report also added that technological progress may mean new jobs and a productivity boom, which could eventually boost global GDP by as much as 7 percent.

Generative AI systems like ChatGPT can create content very similar to human output and could spark a productivity boom over the next decade, the report said.

The report further cites research that says that today around 60 per cent of the workers are engaged in work that didn't even exist in 1940. However, it also quoted another research that suggests technological change since the 1980s has displaced workers faster than it has created jobs. 

If generative AI is like previous information-technology advances, it could reduce employment in the near term, the report concludes.

Jobs most at risk

As per the report, the impact will also vary significantly between different sectors. Administrative and legal sectors will see the maximum impact with 46 per cent of administrative jobs and 44 per cent of legal jobs risking replacement by AI.

Jobs with the lowest exposure to AI include cleaning and maintenance, installation and repair, and construction jobs, the report found. Physically intensive professions face low risk, with construction facing a six per cent threat while maintenance is looking at four per cent probable substitution.