Hamid Karzai-US row intensifies

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has accused the US of stopping fuel delivery and support services to Afghan forces to pressure him to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA).

President Karzai reviewed defence and interior ministry reports at a meeting of the National Security Council and insisted the agreement-which could leave up to 15,000 US troops in Afghanistan for 10 years after the withdrawal of combat troops in 2014 had to be mutually agreed not signed under pressure.

NATO has denied the President's latest accusation. In a statement-ISAF-the coalition force said, "There has been no stoppage in the delivery of requested fuel and we continue to process all orders as soon as they are received. We remain committed to supporting our partners and will continue to do so."

The President's holding up of signing the agreement is increasingly threatening a 'zero option' of no US troops from 2015 and the drying up of 8 billion dollars in promised military and development aid annually from 2015.

Karzai defies Afghan Assembly, US
President Karzai is defying the Loya Jirga (Council of elders and leaders) he set up that endorsed signing the agreement before the end of this year as the US wants. The President insists he wants to continue negotiating and the signing should be done only after the April 2014 elections to choose his successor. In his conditions, he has demanded an immediate stop to US raids on Afghan homes, helping get the Taliban to talk, support for the polls and the release of 17 Afghans from Guantanamo Bay. Washington has repeatedly said negotiations are over. President Obama wrote him a letter on his most vociferous demand, saying, "As this new agreement states, US forces shall not enter Afghan homes for the purpose of military operations, except under extraordinary circumstances involving urgent risk to life and limb of US nationals. We will continue to make every effort to respect the sanctity and dignity of Afghans in their homes and in their daily lives, just as we do for our citizens."

Secretary of State John Kerry has had meetings with President Karzai and has made several phone-calls to him in November. National Security Advisor Susan Rice also met with him in Kabul last month. But, the President remains adamant.

Fallout of brinkmanship
Analysts say President Karzai's brinkmanship could threaten the security situation drastically if America exercises the 'zero option'. At stake are four billion dollars in military aid and four billion dollars in development aid every year from 2015. Coalition forces are to pull out combat troops by December 31, 2014, and the BSA, if signed, will keep possibly up to 15,000 troops to train, equip and assist Afghan forces from 2015. They will also be allowed limited counter-insurgency operations against al Qaeda and Taliban forces and will have nine bases after the drawdown of combat troops.

Karzai legacy: not a modern day Shah Shuja
President Karzai's move to not sign the BSA immediately is seen by top officials as an attempt to stay relevant in the run-up to scheduled Presidential polls in April 2014 and not be perceived as a lame-duck. He also, analysts say, wants to go down in history as someone who stood up to all foreign powers especially with a legacy of anti-Americanism. Hamid Karzai, officials who have closely interacted with him say, is closely aware of the history surrounding the reviled 19th century monarch Shah Shuja. From the same Pasthun sub-clan as the infamous king, the President, Afghan experts say, doesn't want to be painted as a modern day Shah Shuja, a ruler imposed by foreigners who is destined to meet the same end.