What does it actually mean for the Republican Party to end its relationship with Donald Trump?
Paul Ryan is out. So are at least four vulnerable Republicans. But what does it actually mean for the Republican Party to end its relationship with Donald Trump?
I talked with Republican strategists back in August about how this could go down. And they agreed the decision time is now, the last few weeks before Election Day.
Now that one of the nation's top Republicans just pulled the plug, let's break down the three most likely methods the rest of the Republican Party could do it too.
- The dramatic breakup
To understand how this could work, we first have to understand what the Republican Party has been doing for Trump up until this point.
Short answer: A lot.
Trump has eschewed traditional campaign infrastructure in favor of rallies. So the Republican National Committee, which helps out every presidential candidate, took on an especially heavy lift this cycle to help him out. They coordinated direct mail. (TV advertisements are now largely in the realm of campaigns and super PACs.) They're putting together entire get-out-the-vote teams in 16 different states. They're basically propping up critical aspects of his campaign.
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus could decide he's done with all of that - that he's seen the writing on the polls and thinks Trump is going to lose. Henceforth, Priebus could declare (privately or otherwise), all the money, data and staff under his control will now be used solely for propping up congressional candidates.
This would be a sea change, to put it mildly, even in these rough-and-tumble seas. Right now, if you're a donor and you cut a check to the Republican National Committee, that money can go to Trump. But in this scenario, Priebus would make clear that the money is going to every Republican but Trump.
It's not just the flow of money that would change. The field operations the party is creating for Trump would morph into field operations for vulnerable Senate candidates in states such as Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Indiana. Republicans would stop calling potential Trump supporters and start calling potential supporters for Senate and House candidates.
But pulling the plug like this could backfire for Republicans. It would risk upsetting Trump supporters and, paradoxically, costing Republicans their majorities in Congress. Not to mention, the Republican Party doesn't just give money to Trump; it gets money from Trump (about $14 million in July).
- The "it's complicated" breakup
Sort of like that relationship in high school you officially ended but didn't really - this is where the lines get murky. And this is the path Ryan and other Republicans are choosing.
The Republican Party could still support Trump by setting up teams to campaign for him in some states. Trump and the RNC would still keep sharing money through a joint fundraising committee, and the RNC would still do much of the heavy lifting for Trump's campaign.
But in other states, they'd quietly focus most of their time and energy on turning out supporters for the congressional races. Fliers would be mailed to independents in Ohio that praise Sen. Rob Portman, but don't mention Trump. The script that GOP phone bank volunteers read in Pennsylvania would talk about how important it is to keep the Senate in Republican hands instead of why Trump would make a great president.
- The organic breakup
There's actually one more way Trump and the GOP could call it quits. But it would require everyone - the party, Trump and Republican voters - to come to a mutual agreement that Trump is going to lose. Pretty much the opposite of the first two breakup scenarios.
It would play out like this: At some point this week, the entire Republican Party comes to the collective agreement that Trump is going to lose.
A realization like that would make it much easier for the RNC to cut its losses and abandon Trump without too much political blowback from his supporters. Ideally, even Trump wouldn't make too much of a stir about it, so clear is the writing on the wall for him. (This is pretty much exactly how it went down in '96 with Dole. Of course, Dole had a somewhat different relationship with his party.)
Decision time is here for nervous Republicans, who have to decide now if they're going to break up with Trump or try to keep the dysfunctional marriage working.
© 2016 The Washington Post
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
I talked with Republican strategists back in August about how this could go down. And they agreed the decision time is now, the last few weeks before Election Day.
Now that one of the nation's top Republicans just pulled the plug, let's break down the three most likely methods the rest of the Republican Party could do it too.
- The dramatic breakup
To understand how this could work, we first have to understand what the Republican Party has been doing for Trump up until this point.
Short answer: A lot.
Trump has eschewed traditional campaign infrastructure in favor of rallies. So the Republican National Committee, which helps out every presidential candidate, took on an especially heavy lift this cycle to help him out. They coordinated direct mail. (TV advertisements are now largely in the realm of campaigns and super PACs.) They're putting together entire get-out-the-vote teams in 16 different states. They're basically propping up critical aspects of his campaign.
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus could decide he's done with all of that - that he's seen the writing on the polls and thinks Trump is going to lose. Henceforth, Priebus could declare (privately or otherwise), all the money, data and staff under his control will now be used solely for propping up congressional candidates.
This would be a sea change, to put it mildly, even in these rough-and-tumble seas. Right now, if you're a donor and you cut a check to the Republican National Committee, that money can go to Trump. But in this scenario, Priebus would make clear that the money is going to every Republican but Trump.
It's not just the flow of money that would change. The field operations the party is creating for Trump would morph into field operations for vulnerable Senate candidates in states such as Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Indiana. Republicans would stop calling potential Trump supporters and start calling potential supporters for Senate and House candidates.
But pulling the plug like this could backfire for Republicans. It would risk upsetting Trump supporters and, paradoxically, costing Republicans their majorities in Congress. Not to mention, the Republican Party doesn't just give money to Trump; it gets money from Trump (about $14 million in July).
- The "it's complicated" breakup
Sort of like that relationship in high school you officially ended but didn't really - this is where the lines get murky. And this is the path Ryan and other Republicans are choosing.
The Republican Party could still support Trump by setting up teams to campaign for him in some states. Trump and the RNC would still keep sharing money through a joint fundraising committee, and the RNC would still do much of the heavy lifting for Trump's campaign.
But in other states, they'd quietly focus most of their time and energy on turning out supporters for the congressional races. Fliers would be mailed to independents in Ohio that praise Sen. Rob Portman, but don't mention Trump. The script that GOP phone bank volunteers read in Pennsylvania would talk about how important it is to keep the Senate in Republican hands instead of why Trump would make a great president.
- The organic breakup
There's actually one more way Trump and the GOP could call it quits. But it would require everyone - the party, Trump and Republican voters - to come to a mutual agreement that Trump is going to lose. Pretty much the opposite of the first two breakup scenarios.
It would play out like this: At some point this week, the entire Republican Party comes to the collective agreement that Trump is going to lose.
A realization like that would make it much easier for the RNC to cut its losses and abandon Trump without too much political blowback from his supporters. Ideally, even Trump wouldn't make too much of a stir about it, so clear is the writing on the wall for him. (This is pretty much exactly how it went down in '96 with Dole. Of course, Dole had a somewhat different relationship with his party.)
Decision time is here for nervous Republicans, who have to decide now if they're going to break up with Trump or try to keep the dysfunctional marriage working.
© 2016 The Washington Post
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
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