3 Theories On How Israel May Have Triggered Hezbollah Device Blasts

Thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members detonated across Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 32 people and injuring thousands more. This attack has sparked multiple theories about how these devices were sabotaged. While the exact mechanism behind the explosions is still being investigated, a few theories have emerged.

Much of the debate centres around the idea that the pagers were tampered with, causing their batteries to overheat and explode. According to Lebanese Telecommunications Minister Johnny Corm, this overheating indicated "foul play". However, cybersecurity expert Robert Graham quickly dismissed this theory, arguing that making batteries do more than burn is implausible. Instead, he suggested the far more likely explanation that someone bribed the factories involved to insert explosives into the devices, Bloomberg reported.

What happened?

The first wave of explosions occurred on Tuesday when pagers used by the Iran-backed terror group detonated across Lebanon. Hospitals were quickly overwhelmed with casualties, leading to the establishment of a field hospital in Tyre. These explosions came shortly after Israel announced a strategic expansion in its military actions against Hezbollah. On Wednesday, a second wave of explosions involving Hezbollah walkie-talkies caused further chaos.

Theory 1: Explosives planted in devices

According to Lebanese security sources and reports by Reuters, a new batch of 5,000 pagers ordered by Hezbollah from Taiwan-based manufacturer Gold Apollo had been compromised. Israeli spy intelligence agency Mossad is suspected of embedding small explosive devices within these devices. The explosives, reportedly as small as 3 grams, were hidden in such a way that they went undetected by Hezbollah for months. The detonation mechanism is believed to be activated remotely via a coded message sent to the pagers. These explosives, experts say, were impossible to detect through regular scanners.

The attack on the walkie-talkies, believed to have been purchased around the same time, has been linked to a similar sabotage operation. These devices, labelled as ICOM and reportedly made in Japan, are thought to have been tampered with at the production level, possibly by Mossad. The walkie-talkie explosions are less well-documented, but it is suggested that the same coded message method could have been used to activate the embedded explosives.

Theory 2: Supply chain compromised

Another theory is the tampering of the supply chain. Security experts suggest that Israeli intelligence may have gained access to the devices long before they reached Hezbollah. The pagers were identified as Gold Apollo AR-924 models, but further investigation revealed they were manufactured by BAC Consulting in Hungary, a company with licensing rights to use the Gold Apollo brand. This raises the possibility that the sabotage took place during the manufacturing or distribution stages, providing Israel an opportunity to install explosive materials without detection.

Hezbollah has since stated that the devices were part of a shipment recently imported, implying the tampering occurred before the pagers arrived in Lebanon.

Theory 3: Remote activation via message

Another central theory is that the pagers and walkie-talkies were remotely detonated using an electronic signal or radio frequency, rather than physical tampering. Mark Montgomery, a retired admiral and executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, suggested that the explosions may have been triggered by a radio frequency or electronic signal. "I suspect it was an intentional physical defect enabled by cyber or a radio frequency signal," he told Bloomberg.

The detonation appears to have been triggered by a coded message, according to a report from the New York Times. The pagers simultaneously received what appeared to be an internal communication from Hezbollah leadership, which, upon opening, activated the explosives hidden within the devices. Videos circulating on social media supposedly show individuals looking at their pagers moments before the explosions occurred.

Who is responsible?

Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the attack and has vowed retaliation. The timing of the explosions, which followed Israel's announcement of extended military operations along the Lebanon border, has fuelled speculation that this was a deliberate move by Mossad. However, Israel has not commented on the matter officially. Further investigation is ongoing.