How Donald Trump Is Inadvertently Helping The Liberals In Canada

Canada is set to go to polls on April 28 in what's emerging as a consequential and close election. The candidates have been given 36 days to campaign, the shortest allowed under the law, with US President Donald Trump's trade war threats and Canadian sovereignty dominating the five-week election race.

This will be the first Canadian election in a decade without former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the ballot. This time, Canada's two main rival parties-- the Conservatives and the Liberals -- are in a neck-and-neck competition, making it a race to watch.

In Canada, voters don't elect the prime minister directly and traditionally the leader of the party that wins the most seats is chosen as the head of the government.

When is the election?

Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney on Sunday called the snap election, sending Canadians to the polls in a matter of weeks. The polling will be held on Monday, April 28. Voting stations will remain open for 12 hours on election day, but hours will vary by time zone.

When Will The Results Be Announced?

In Canada, the preliminary results of the poll are usually available on the night of the election. However, voting officials will validate the results, usually in the first two to three days after election day before they are officially declared.

How Does The Election Process Work?

Canada has 343 federal electoral districts, which are known as ridings or constituencies. Each federal riding has a corresponding seat in the House of Commons, which is up for grabs during an election. Members of the Senate, the upper chamber of the Parliament, are appointed and do not run for election.

Eligible voters can cast a ballot for their preferred candidate in the riding in which they reside. Like the United Kingdom, Canada has a "first-past-the-post" electoral system, under which the candidate who gets the most votes in each riding wins that seat and becomes an MP--even if they don't win a majority of the votes. Other parties win nothing in that area.

They do not need to get the majority of all the votes cast in their area. Other parties win nothing in that area.

The country has a first-past-the-post election system, which means that the candidate who secures the most votes in the riding wins – even if they don't win a majority of the votes.

The leader of the party with the most number of elected MPs forms the government, while the second largest party traditionally forms the official opposition.

If no party gets an overall majority in the house, the result is known as a hung parliament or a minority government. in which case the ruling party will not be able to pass legislation without the help of other parties.

How Prime Minister Is Elected? 

Canadians do not directly vote for the prime minister and the party that gets the largest number of seats in the House of Commons is typically asked to form a government. If the party with the most seats does not get an outright majority, it forms an agreement with another party to be able to pass legislation.

The leader of the single largest party also becomes the prime minister.

Main Parties And Their Strength In Parliament

Canada has four major federal political parties --The Liberals, The Conservative Party, The Bloc Quebecois (which only runs candidates in the French-speaking province of Quebec) and the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP). 

The Liberals, previously led by Justin Trudeau, have been in government since 2015. They had 152 seats in Parliament at dissolution when its new leader Carney called the snap polls.

Over the last decade, the Conservative Party has served as Canada's official opposition, with 120 seats in the previous Parliament. The party is led by Pierre Poilievre, an Ottawa-area legislator known for his populist rhetoric.

The Jagmeet Singh-led NDP had 24 parliamentary seats in the previous parliament and was supporting the Trudeau-led Liberal minority government, before withdrawing from that deal in September of last year.

Led by Yves-Francois Blanchet, the Bloc Quebecois had 33 legislators in the House of Commons. 

Apart from the big four, there is also the Green Party of Canada, which had two seats in Parliament and is not expected to make any major gains in the upcoming vote.

Major Candidates In Fray

Mark Carney: Sixity-year-old Carney--the incumbent prime minister of Canada-- was chosen to lead The Liberals last month by an overwhelming 85 per cent of the vote, succeeding Justin Trudeau. He is a familiar face for Canadians having headed both the Banks of Canada and England --serving at the former during the 2008 financial crash and the latter during Brexit.

Carney is hailed for his financial expertise, but he is politically untested. since taking charge as Prime Minister, he has taken a defiant stance against US President  Trump, vowing retaliation against his tariffs and stating that Canada will never become the 51st US state.

Pierre Poilievre: Forty-five-year-old Poilievre was first elected to the House of Commons at age 25 and has been in Canadian politics for nearly two decades. 

Throughout this political career, he has advocated for a low-tax, and small government in Canada. Poilievre is known for his confrontational style of politics and in recent years, he has tirelessly attacked the Liberals and Trudeau, saying that their "disastrous" and "woke" policies have worsened the quality of life in Canada.

Yves-François Blanchet: Blanchet is unlikely to become Canada's next prime minister as his party only runs candidates in the French-speaking province. But, he's still a key player in Canadian elections as his party's popularity in Quebec could determine the fate of the other major parties looking to form the government.

Jagmeet Singh: Forty-six-year-old Singh made history in 2017 when he became the first ethnic minority and practising Sikh to lead a major political party in Canada. The former criminal defence lawyer was elected as an MP in a British Columbia riding in 2019 and served in public office since.

Singh had helped the Trudeau Liberal government keep its hold on power since 2021, providing needed votes in Parliament in exchange for support on legislation like dental benefits for lower-income families and a national pharmacare programme covering birth control and insulin.

But in late 2024, Singh tore up that "supply and confidence" agreement, after Trudeau's cabinet directed its industrial relations board to impose binding arbitration to end a work stoppage at Canada's two largest railways.

What Polls Say?

Until as early as January, the Conservatives had what many believed was a clear path to winning a parliamentary majority. However, US President Trump's threats against Canada, coupled with internal changes in the Liberal party's power structure including Trudeau's resignation and Carney's rise to power, have changed things for the party. Recent polls suggest the Liberals either with a lead over the Tories or are locked in a neck-and-neck fight with their rivals.

According to CBC News Poll Tracker, Liberals have 37.5 per cent support compared with 37.1 per cent for the Conservatives on Sunday.

The NDP was in third with 11.6 per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 6.4 per cent. The Greens had 3.8 per cent.