How Hamas Chief's Assassination Could Disrupt Middle East

Israel's assassination of Hamas' political leader will have far-reaching consequences for any chance in peace in the Middle East

The assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, where he was attending the inauguration of Iranian President Mesud Pezeshkian,  is a watershed moment, marking the intensification of the ongoing Israeli-Palestine war.

While Israel always maintained a policy of hitting Hamas leaders anywhere in the world, there has been an understanding between Israel and the Arab states about not targeting them outside Palestine. 

Haniyeh's assassination is the first such targeted killing since the 2010 death of Hamas leader Mohmoud Al Mabhouh in Dubai.

Haniyeh, who was seen as a pragmatist capable of uniting Hamas' competing factions and the nearest thing to a statesman the organisation had, had emerged as a far more significant threat to Israel than anyone else inside Hamas. 

His elimination is one of the biggest achievements of Israeli intelligence and embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Indeed, it could be a lifeline for Netanyahu, who is deeply unpopular in Israel for his handling of the conflict.

Dangerous escalation

But it is also a dangerous escalation and could have serious implications for the region and its fragile security arrangement, with Iran threatening revenge for Haniyeh's killing.

Israel has broken several established rules on which the fragile regional security depended for so long. 

Israel's regional security doctrine depended on two principles.

First, as the Arab streets have been massively unhappy with their regimes for a very long time, the plight of Palestinian people continues to be the biggest source of anger and frustration. 

Without a brutal repressive system in place, Arab public opinion would have become violent as happened during the failed Arab uprisings in 2010. 

The ruling class often distributes subsidies and freebies and relies on more radical Salafi Islamism (pure or authentic Islam, found in the lived example of the early, righteous generations of Muslims, known as the Salaf) to calm down the populace. 

Since the Gaza war, Arab opinion has been dangerously anti-American and anti-Western, and Israel's expanding war theatre beyond Gaza is pushing Arab regimes deeper into troubled waters.

To keep a lid on boiling public opinion is one of the most important aspects that Israel had to help the Gulf States achieve. 

But with this Gaza war — in which more than 39,000 Gazans, including 14,000 children, have been killed — Israel has done serious harm to the Gulf and Arab States' ability to control their population. 

Second, the fragile security in the region stands on secret bilateral and regional agreements between Israel, the United States and the Gulf regimes to pursue a common security arrangement. 

That is to keep radical Islam and its allies, Iran and its proxies, away from gaining any influence in the region, at any cost.

The current Gaza war and the assassination of Haniyeh will further discredit pro-West Arabs and their initiatives on Palestine, including the Abraham Accords. 

In the last few decades, Gulf states have separated Gulf security from the wider Arab security. 

Iran a bigger threat

For Arab security, the resolution of the Palestinian crisis still remains the most important issue to be resolved while for Gulf security, Iran remains a bigger threat than the Israeli occupation.

As a result, any Gulf-led initiative for Palestine has been primarily driven by its quest to sideline Iran and its proxies. 

In the last few years, Iran and the Gulf states have joined China -mediated dialogue for regional security.

In this Gaza crisis, the Americans and Israelis may lose some of the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, in their plans to revive the Abraham Accords. 

Egypt, Jordan and other Arab states have become more frustrated over being sidelined by the Gulf states and for sacrificing Arab security to the Gulf security. 

Finally, Haniyeh's assassination has weakened and divided the Palestinian Authority, helping everyone except Palestinians and their prospects of achieving statehood. Today's Palestinian authority has lost its appeal and influence as it once had under the charismatic leadership of Yasser Arafat. 

Hamas has filled the gap left by the unpopular and corrupt leadership of Mahmoud Abbas. By killing Hamas' top leader, Israel has unilaterally changed the rules of Arab and Gulf security. 

The new Palestinian response to the Gaza crisis may not be totally in control of the Gulf states as the Americans and Israelis would have desired.

Egypt heavily relied on Hamas to maintain the fragile security between Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt felt betrayed and isolated by the Americans and Israelis. The assassination is a serious setback for Egypt as well. 

Interestingly, Turkey and Egypt have spoken more frequently these days about the Gaza crisis and about helping each other. The Turkish foreign minister is in Cairo and has also visited the Rafah border to inspect the distribution of Turkish assistance.

When Egyptian President Abdelfattah Al Sisi visits Ankara next month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may offer him bigger opportunities to revive Egypt's historical role in the Arab world. 

Israel and its Western backers must be concerned about how the regional powers realign their interests and strategies for new regional security with Palestine at the centre. 

Omair Anas is Assistant Professor of International Relations at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkiye, He is also a member of the Centre for India-West Asia Dialogue, a think tank based in New Delhi.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info

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