How Rishi Sunak's Small Circle Forged Vote Plan That Shocked UK Cabinet

Rishi Sunak gave his most senior ministers little more than an hour's notice of what he was about to tell the country and had already told King Charles III, that he had decided to call a snap UK general election for July 4.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt was among those caught unaware. Foreign Secretary David Cameron, who'd had to cancel a visit to Albania just to make the meeting in Downing Street, expressed surprise, but said the decision "seizes the initiative, sets the agenda and forces the choice," according to people familiar with the conversation.

Others were less convinced. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps shared reservations, the people said. Detecting the shock later in a meeting of the full Cabinet, Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho - a Sunak loyalist since their Treasury days - intervened to say the premier wasn't a politician who follows the consensus, whether on Brexit, pandemic lockdowns or net zero. Communities Secretary Michael Gove praised the move, quoting the Special Air Service motto: "Who dares wins."

Sunak ultimately headed into a downpour in Downing Street to speak the cameras. But the fact he presented it as a fait accompli signed off by the monarch, which the people said he did to ensure ministers couldn't make him change his mind, underscores the scale of the gamble he knew he was taking. Little more than 48 hours later, Gove had joined the scores of Tory MPs announcing that they were standing down after the election.

Spokespeople for Sunak, Cameron, Shapps, Hunt and Coutinho declined to comment.

The announcement was weeks in the making, and piecing together how it came about reveals that it's not only the Cabinet with reservations. The premier's closest aides argued opposing sides, and, while people familiar with the matter say everyone is now on the same page, some still don't want to be seen as responsible for pushing the snap election idea.

It's far from the ideal basis for what will be a bruising six-week campaign against Keir Starmer's poll-leading opposition Labour Party. He's already faced criticism for a presidential style that leaves little room for other Tory voices. If he doesn't deliver on his strategy to narrow the poll gap early in the campaign, the recriminations will likely engulf him alone.

Sunak's gamble on a summer election on Wednesday stunned British politics. Prime ministers don't go to the polls when they're tailing by 20 points, as the Tories are, unless forced to. Sunak could have waited until as late as January, but was widely likely expected to call an election in the autumn to allow more time for voters to notice the UK's gradual economic recovery.

Outside of Cabinet, Tory MPs are openly critical. Going to the polls now instead of holding out hope for a Starmer slip-up has, they say, cemented a defeat. A stuttering campaign, including the drenched launch on Wednesday and the awkward clip of Sunak in the Titanic Quarter in Belfast on Friday, have reinforced the sense that it's all been a bit rushed.

"This is surprising given he had the advantage of deciding when to call the election," said Will Jennings, associate dean at Southampton University. "He is deeply unpopular with the public, and polls suggest considerable public appetite for change. Turning things around would require something truly dramatic."

On a visit to the Titanic Quarter today, I asked the Prime Minister if he is captaining a sinking ship going into this election @BelfastLive pic.twitter.com/fjjPMhYX2B

— James McCarthy (@JamesMcCarthy97) May 24, 2024

The timing has had a tangible impact. Sunak's signature plan to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda, which the Tories regard as critical to holding off the right-wing Reform UK party, will not begin until after the election. The government also ran out of time to get a landmark smoking ban, predicted to be one of Sunak's main achievements in office, through Parliament.

That's just the first few days of campaigning. Conflicting briefings by advisers about who was responsible for the snap election idea add to the dangerous backdrop for the weeks ahead.

The premier's inner circle of his 10 or so closest confidants had privately been considering an early election as far back as the turn of the year, people familiar with the matter said. Their "Plan A" had been to use tax breaks, falling inflation and interest rate cuts to hold the vote in the autumn, a strategy devised by the Tory campaign chief Isaac Levido.

Latest Westminster voting intention (21-22 May, all fieldwork conducted prior to the election announcement)

Con: 21% (+1 from 15-16 May)
Lab: 46% (-1)
Reform UK: 12% (+1)
Lib Dem: 9% (=)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)https://t.co/2pHf1AWihz pic.twitter.com/lXAVHuRdMo

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 23, 2024

Yet a "Plan B" was kept on the table: a possible snap election if the right moment presented itself. The idea was discussed seriously in February, though some senior aides were strongly opposed.

Around the beginning of April, the thinking began to shift toward a summer vote, people close to Sunak said. That set off weeks of agonizing conversations, with most aides recognizing the choice was far from clearcut. Some vacillated as they weighed the merits of waiting for an improvement against the risk of Tory support tanking further.

Sunak himself was the driving force for a snap election, people familiar with the matter said. The premier and his chief of staff, Liam Booth-Smith, had become frustrated that nothing the government did, such as tax cuts at two successive fiscal events, was moving the polls.

It was also increasingly clear that more tax cuts, which were part of the plan for an autumn election, were not doable. That reinforced their view that the polls were not going to shift until they called the election, people familiar with their thinking said, at which point they would become less of a referendum on the Tories' record in office, and more a decision about the future.

That's a line that Sunak started using days before his election announcement.

Another key factor in Sunak's thinking was the expectation that inflation would fall back toward the Bank of England's 2 per cent target in the summer.

By around the end of April, Sunak's decision was coming into view, the people said. He was backed by Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden. Levido and James Forsyth, Sunak's close friend and adviser, were eventually convinced.

Over the next six weeks, Sunak and his aides will find out if they were right. They are planning imminent manifesto announcements to try to demonstrate, per the Tory election slogan, that Sunak is willing to take "bold action."

Yet some Tories are starting the blame game early, unconvinced that Sunak's team has hit on a winning formula. Meanwhile close to 80 Conservative MPs have said they're calling it quits at the election - more than before Labour's 1997 landslide victory - a number that is expected to keep on rising.