How Trump's Obsession With Greenland Could End: 4 Possible Scenarios

With Donald Trump doubling down on his Arctic acquisition threats, Greenland's leader Mute Egede has said he was willing to meet US-President-elect to negotiate the future of the autonomous Danish territory. However, he asserted that Greenland was not interested in becoming American territory, but was willing to discuss what could unite the island and the US.

"We are ready to talk. Cooperation is about dialogue. Cooperation means that you will work towards solutions," Egede said during a press conference in Denmark with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

"We have a desire for independence, a desire to be the master of our own house ... This is something everyone should respect. Greenland is for the Greenlandic people. We do not want to be Danish, we do not want to be American. We want to be Greenlandic," he added.

What Does Trump Want?

Donald Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly said he wants to make Greenland a part of the United States. During a press conference in Florida, after his election victory was certified, he went a step further, refusing to rule out economic or military force to take control of it.

"Greenland is an incredible place, and the people will benefit tremendously if, and when, it becomes part of our Nation," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday.

Trump first indicated an intention to buy Greenland--an ice-covered island of just 57,000 people-- from Denmark in 2019, during his first term as president. However, he was rebuffed.

Since then, Danish and European officials have repeatedly said Greenland was not for sale and its territorial integrity must be preserved.

Why Does Trump Want Greenland?

The island, whose capital Nuuk is closer to New York than the Danish capital Copenhagen, boasts mineral, oil and natural gas wealth, but development has been slow. A 2023 survey showed that 25 of 34 minerals deemed "critical raw materials" by the European Commission were found in Greenland. They include significant quantities of materials used in batteries, such as graphite and lithium, and also so-called rare earth elements used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. However, the Danish territory has banned the extraction of oil and natural gas for environmental reasons.

It is also part of NATO through the membership of Denmark and has strategic significance for the US military and for its ballistic missile early-warning system since the shortest route from Europe to North America runs via the Arctic island. The US military maintains a permanent presence at the Pituffik air base in Greenland's northwest.

The United States has expressed interest in expanding its military presence, including placing radars there to monitor the waters between the island, Iceland and Britain, which are a gateway for Russian navy vessels and nuclear submarines.

Possible Scenarios For Greenland's Future

With two NATO allies -- the US and Denmark-- at odds over the future of the mineral-rich Greenland, we look at four possible scenarios of ending the standoff.

Trump Loses Interest: Some experts speculate that Trump's threats are just bluster, aimed at pushing Denmark to boost security in Greenland amid threats of both Russia and China seeking influence in the region. Denmark in December announced a new $1.5bn military package for the Arctic. 

While talking to BBC, Elisabet Svane, chief political correspondent for Politiken newspaper noted that what was important in what Trump said was that Denmark has to fulfil its obligations in the Arctic or it's got to let the US do it. 

However, Marc Jacobsen, associate professor at the Royal Danish Defence College, told the British broadcaster that Trump is using the threats to position "himself before entering office" while Greenland is using the occasion to gain more international authority, as an important step towards independence.

Per the BBC report, so even if the incoming US President were to lose further interest in Greenland now, he has certainly put the spotlight on the issue.

Greenland Gets Independence From Denmark, Seeks Closer Ties With US: Independence for Greenland has been on the agenda for many years, with a general consensus among island residents that Denmark will accept it whenever they vote for it. However, it is an unlikely scenario that Greenland seeks the vote unless its people are given guarantees that they can keep the subsidies they are currently setting from Denmark to pay for welfare schemes like healthcare.

"The Greenland PM may be up in arms now, but in the event that he actually calls a referendum, he will need some kind of convincing narrative about how to save the Greenland economy and welfare system," the BBC report quoted Ulrik Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, as saying.

In such a scenario, a possible step could be Geenland's free association with the US, like the one the United States currently has with Pacific states--Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.

Though Denmark has previously opposed this status for Greenland, current Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is reportedly not completely against it.

With Denmark accepting colonial responsibility, its "understanding of the Greenland historical experience is way better than it was 20 years ago," Dr Gad noted, adding that the recent discussions "might persuade [Frederiksen] to say - better to keep Denmark in the Arctic, keep some kind of connection to Greenland, even if it's a looser one."

But even if Greenland gets its independence from Denmark, it won't be able to get rid of Americans, who never really left after taking control of the island in World War II, and see it as vital for their security. 

According to Dr Gad, Greenland officials had been in contact with the last two US administrations about Washington's role as "they now know the US will never leave."

Trump Follows Through With Economic Threats: There is also a scenario where Trump follows through with its economic rhetoric by drastically increasing tariffs on Danish, or even EU, goods, it can force Denmark into concessions of some kind over Greenland.

But, Professor Jacobsen noted that Denmark has been preparing for such an outcome, and not just because of the Arctic territory.

Amid Trump's threat of imposing 10 per cent universal tariffs on all US imports, some Danish and other European companies are reportedly considering setting up manufacturing bases in the US.

One of the main Danish industries that could be hardest hit by the tariffs is pharmaceuticals. The US imports products like hearing aids, insulin and the diabetes drug Ozempic from Denmark. Analysts believe that a steep rise in prices of these goods, that would result from these measures, would not find favour with the US public.

Trump Actually invades Greenland: Though the US taking the military route seems far-fetched, with Trump failing to rule it out as an option, the possibility of it happening can't be negated. If the US decided to go that way, it wouldn't be hard for it to take control of Greenland, given that they already have bases and plenty of troops on the island.

However, any use of military force by Washington would create an international incident.

"If they invade Greenland, they invade Nato," said Svane, adding, "So that's where it stops. Article 5 would have to be triggered. And if a Nato country invades Nato then there's no Nato."

Dr Gad noted that with his threats, Trump sounds like Chinese President Xi Jinping talking about Taiwan or Russia's Vladimir Putin talking about Ukraine. "He's saying it's legitimate for us to take this piece of land...If we take him really seriously this is a bad omen for the whole of the Western alliance,' he said.