Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's future looked increasingly in doubt today after a key coalition partner switched allegiance ahead of a parliamentary no-confidence vote that could be held as early as this weekend. "Imran Khan is a player who fights till the last ball. There will not be a resignation. There will be a match, both friends and foes will watch it," tweeted Pakistan Minister Fawad Chaudhry. No Prime Minister in Pakistan's history has seen out a full term, and Mr Khan is facing the biggest challenge to his rule since being elected in 2018, with opponents accusing him of economic mismanagement and foreign-policy bungling. Debate on the no-confidence motion is due to start on Thursday, leaving Mr Khan scrambling to keep his own Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) members on side -- as well as a slew of minority parties.
Here are the updates on Imran Khan:
Imran Khan has ordered all PTI legislators to remain absent from the assembly on the day of the vote to mitigate any chance of dissidents secretly supporting the motion to remove him. Absenteeism would not hurt Mr Khan's cause because he doesn't need to win; he just needs to ensure that the opposition cannot get the 172 votes needed to pass the no-confidence motion. Mr Khan has also filed a petition in the courts seeking lifetime electoral bans against on those found to have broken ranks, in a bid to dissuade potential dissidents.
Imran Khan faces a tight vote. He became Prime Minister after his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), won the most seats in the 2018 general elections. However, the PTI did not have a simple majority by itself and had to form a coalition with other parties. The PTI has 155 members and Khan crossed the 172-vote threshold to be elected prime minister in 2018 with the help of coalition partners. The PTI-led coalition increased its numbers over the past three years.
Under the Pakistan Constitution, a Prime Minister is elected by a majority of the lower house National Assembly, which has 342 members. A candidate needs a majority of legislators, 172, to vote for him to become Prime Minister. That is the same number of votes against him in a no-confidence vote needed to oust him and dissolve his cabinet. So Mr Khan could survive a no-confidence vote even if he got fewer votes than the opposition but only if the latter did not get the 172 votes that make up a majority in the 342-seat house.
Some analysts say Imran Khan has also lost the crucial support of the military -- claims both sides deny -- and Pakistan's army is key to political power. There have been four military coups -- and at least as many unsuccessful ones -- since Pakistan's independence in 1947, and the country has spent more than three decades under army rule.
The PML-N and PPP dominated national politics for decades until Imran Khan forged a coalition against the usually feuding dynastic groups. He was elected after promising to sweep away decades of entrenched corruption and cronyism, but has struggled to maintain support with inflation skyrocketing, a feeble rupee and crippling debt.
Senior MQM-P leader Faisal Subzwari tweeted Wednesday that his party had finalised an agreement with the opposition, led by the Pakistan People Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). "Details will be formally announced today," he said.
In the past, Pakistan parties have also resorted to physically preventing lawmakers from voting against key legislation by blocking access to the national assembly, leading to cat-and-mouse chases and even accusations of kidnapping.
More than a dozen PTI lawmakers have also indicated they will cross the floor, although party leaders are trying to get the courts to prevent them from voting.
On paper, Imran Khan's PTI and coalition partners have 176 seats in the 342-member assembly, but on Wednesday the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM-P) said its seven lawmakers would vote with the opposition, which has a combined 163 seats.