In Iran, New President vs Revolutionary Guards Over Israel Air Strikes

A standoff between Iran's newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian and some hardliners in the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has put the future of Iran's response to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran hanging in the balance. According to The Telegraph, the Iranian government is divided over how to retaliate against Israel following the killing.

The IRGC is reportedly advocating for a direct and severe missile strike on Tel Aviv and other major Israeli cities. However, President Pezeshkian, who assumed office just days before the assassination, is pushing back against this aggressive strategy. Pezeshkian, known for his relatively moderate stance and his electoral victory over a candidate backed by the IRGC, is advocating for a more calculated response. He is urging for strikes on alleged Mossad bases located outside Israel, particularly in neighbouring regions such as the Republic of Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan. This approach, he argues, would minimise the risk of a full-scale war with Israel, a conflict he believes could have grave consequences for Iran.

"Pezeshkian fears that any direct attack on Israel would have serious consequences," a close aide to President Pezeshkian told The Telegraph. The aide reportedly added that Pezeshkian has suggested notifying Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan before any strikes on alleged Israeli bases within their borders.

The IRGC, which has historically enjoyed significant autonomy and influence within the Iranian government, is reportedly undermining Pezeshkian's efforts to avoid a major confrontation with Israel. An official from the IRGC told The Telegraph that the organization is largely dismissive of the president's more restrained approach. "The number one consideration is still striking Tel Aviv with Hezbollah and others at the same time," the official said as quoted by The Telegraph

Esmail Qaani, the commander of the IRGC's elite Quds Force, has also voiced strong support for an immediate and decisive retaliation.

According to The Telegraph, Pezeshkian faces an uphill battle in asserting his authority over the IRGC, which remains loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to another aide close to the president, the IRGC's push for a more aggressive response is "more about undermining his week-long presidency rather than covering the humiliation they have suffered" from the assassination.