In a speech to the United States Congress last month, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu envisioned a new regional coalition in the Middle East, termed the "Abraham Alliance". This proposed alliance, an expansion of the Abraham Accords, aims to unite countries with diplomatic ties to Israel against Iran's influence, particularly its network of proxy forces collectively known as the "Axis of Resistance".
The Abraham Alliance
The Abraham Accords, initiated in September 2020, normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Netanyahu's vision for the Abraham Alliance builds on these accords, seeking a coalition that could include current and future diplomatic partners of Israel. This alliance aims to counteract what Netanyahu describes as "Iran's terror".
Netanyahu's appeal to Congress echoed historical parallels, drawing on Winston Churchill's wartime plea to the US: "Give us the tools, and we'll finish the job." He said US military aid to Israel was essential for regional stability and security.
As the political fallout from the killing of Palestinian armed group Hamas's leader Ismail Haniyeh's killing in Tehran escalates, the United States has pledged to bolster its military presence in the Middle East, deploying an aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, additional ballistic missile defense-capable ships, and a new fighter squadron.
Israel is coordinating closely with both the US and the United Kingdom, preparing for a potential retaliatory strike from Iran. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has held discussions with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin and British Defence Secretary John Healey.
A potential war between Israel and Iran would pit several military powers against each other.
The Axis of Resistance: Iran's Network of Proxies
Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has systematically extended its influence across the Middle East through a network of proxy groups, collectively known as the Axis of Resistance. This network includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, various militias in Iraq, and militant groups in Syria and Gaza. These proxies serve Iran's strategic interests, allowing it to exert influence and challenge adversaries across the region.
Lebanon: Hezbollah
Hezbollah, established in the early 1980s with Iranian support, represents Iran's first significant proxy in the Middle East. Funded and armed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah shares Tehran's Shiite Islamist ideology and recruits primarily from Lebanon's Shiite Muslim population. Originally formed to combat Israeli forces in Lebanon, Hezbollah has evolved into a formidable military and political force, possessing an arsenal of at least 130,000 rockets and missiles.
Gaza: Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad
In the Palestinian territories, Iran has cultivated relationships with militant groups such as Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). These groups have engaged in longstanding conflicts with Israel, receiving financial and military support from Iran.
Syria: The Assad Regime
Iran's alliance with the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has been crucial since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Tehran has provided substantial military support, including approximately 80,000 fighting personnel, to bolster Assad's forces. Additionally, Iran has organised and supported various Shiite militias, such as the Zaynabiyoun Brigade (comprising Pakistani fighters) and the Fatemiyoun Division (consisting of Afghan Hazara fighters), to support the Syrian government.
Yemen: The Houthis
The Houthi movement in Yemen, supported by Iran, has emerged as a key player in the regional conflict. Originally formed in the 1990s and gaining strength after 2014, the Houthis have received military and financial backing from the IRGC.
Iraq: Shiite Militias
Following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran expanded its influence by establishing and supporting various Shiite militias. Notable groups include Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and the Badr Organisation. These militias have often targeted US forces and maintain close ties with Tehran.
