July Deadline for Iran Nuclear Deal Appears in Jeopardy: Envoys

It is increasingly unlikely thatsix world powers and Iran will meet their July 20 deadline to negotiate along-term deal for Iran to curb its nuclear programme in return for an end toeconomic sanctions, diplomats and analysts say.

In theory, an extension to the high-stakes talks should notbe a problem if all sides want it. But President Barack Obama would need tosecure Congress' consent at a time of fraught relations between theadministration and lawmakers.

Iran, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russiaand China included the July 20 deadline to reach a comprehensive agreement inan interim deal they reached in Geneva on Nov. 24.

The November agreement allowed for a six-month extension ifmore time was needed for a final deal to end sanctions on Iran and remove thethreat of war.

An extension would allow up to half a year more for limitedsanctions relief and limits on Iranian nuclear work as agreed in Geneva. Toavoid an open conflict with Congress, Obama would want US lawmakers' approvalto extend that sanctions relief.

The latest round of talks in Vienna last month ran intodifficulties when it became clear that the number of enrichment centrifugesIran wanted to maintain was well beyond what would be acceptable to the West.That disagreement, envoys said, can be measured in tens of thousands ofcentrifuges.

As a result, the latest round of Vienna talks broke off lastmonth with Tehran and Western powers accusing each other of being unrealistic.

While talk of an extension could be a negotiating tactic,members of both sides appeared to favor the idea.

EXTENSION A "FOREGONE CONCLUSION"

Barring a surprise breakthrough in the next round in Viennaon June 16 to 20, Western officials said an extension was virtually a foregoneconclusion. "We're far apart," one diplomat said, adding that thetalks would be "long and complicated."

The sides said last month that they had intended to startdrawing up a final pact but the full-scale drafting did not actually start.

French foreign ministry spokesman Romain Nadal said thepriority for France was to reach a good deal rather than to rush through anagreement.

An Iranian official told Reuters, "We have to get ridof the sanctions immediately. Therefore, the talks will end when this issue istotally resolved. A few more months will kill no one." Pushing thedeadline to October would be fine, he said.

Tehran insists it needs to maintain a domestic uraniumenrichment capability to produce fuel for nuclear power plants without havingto rely on foreign suppliers.

Western governments and their allies suspect Iran wants theability to produce atomic weapons, an allegation Tehran denies.

No one had an interest in letting the negotiations collapseand boosting the risk of war, said Gary Samore of Harvard University, who wasthe National Security Council's top nuclear security official in the firstObama administration.

"Although there will be strong opposition in bothWashington and Tehran, I don't think either side can afford to take the blamefor walking away from the table if the other side is prepared tocontinue," said Samore.

IRAN REFORMS AT STAKE

Failure of the talks would strengthen the position ofhard-liners in Iran's clerical establishment against President Hassan Rouhani,a pragmatist who has sought to improve relations with the United States. Thecountries broke off ties during a hostage crisis after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"Rouhani has put all his eggs in this basket. Failureof the talks means failure of reforms in Iran," an Iranian official closeto Rouhani's government said.

If there is an extension, the Obama administration will seekthe blessing of Congress. U.S. officials voiced confidence to Reuters theywould ultimately get it, but it appears it would not come without a fight.

Members of Congress are already expressing concern about apossible delay. Republican Representative Kerry Bentivolio said last week thatObama had not updated lawmakers on the Vienna talks frequently enough.

To get an extension, he said, "Iran must make real andmeaningful concessions and convince us it is not simply stalling."

Privately, administration officials said they believed membersof Congress were unlikely to risk the blame for torpedoing the talks."They (Congress) don't want to take the blame for destroying a deal,"one US official said.