Kabul: President Hamid Karzai's concession of the need for a runoff election in Afghanistan appears to have prevented his country from slipping into paralysis, but has created a new landscape of risks and uncertainty.
Karzai's concession was a critical first step toward creating a credible Afghan government, coming after heavy pressure from European and U.S. officials, including veiled threats that his actions could affect pending decisions about troops levels, according to one U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the matter.
But diplomats immediately questioned whether a new vote could be organized before the announced date of November 7, and whether a second round of balloting would have more security or less fraud than the first, in which nearly a quarter of ballots were thrown out by international auditors. "There are huge constraints to delivering in the second round," said one Western official. "Can you deliver a result that is any different from the one we've already got?"
Diplomats said the efforts to get the two men to join forces would now intensify. Abdullah has hinted he would be open to negotiate, but Karzai, at a news conference here on Tuesday, seemed to rule it out.
Yet officials said that if there was a deal it would likely involve Abdullah conceding to Karzai, in return for a major role in overhauling Afghanistan's Constitution to give the president less power.
Karzai seemed to dismiss any fraud, saying of the disqualified votes: "The voters are not to blame. Why their votes were disrespected, should be thoroughly investigated. But it is not the right time to discuss this."
After Karzai's complaints of foreign interference, the administration is also determined not to appear to meddle.
As it became clear that international auditors would invalidate enough votes to push Karzai below the threshold for a runoff, the US efforts to persuade the president that he had not won the election outright were extraordinary.
In one personal moment during a weekend of long dinners and walks in the garden of the sprawling, heavily fortified presidential palace in Kabul, Kerry recounted his experience as the Democratic nominee in the 2004 presidential election, including the lingering questions about ballots cast in Ohio that helped decide the election against him. But the senator accepted his defeat and moved on, he said. Now, he told Karzai, it was his turn to do the same.
"I told him, 'sometimes there are tough things,' " Kerry said in an interview on Tuesday.
A senior administration official described the international pressure on Karzai as a "full court press" that also included not-so-subtle threats delivered by telephone to Karzai's defense minister, General Abdul Rahim Wardak.
General James L Jones, the national security adviser, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates both called Wardak to press him to convince Karzai to concede, a senior administration official said.
"Wardak wants more American troops," said this official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing private conversations. "They both told Wardak that this would affect the decision-making process on the troops."
At times the Obama administration officials seemed at odds over how to deal with Karzai's recalcitrance. On Sunday, the White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, said Obama would not make a decision on troops until the political uncertainty in Afghanistan lifted. On Tuesday, Gates said the United States could not wait for that.
Sensing last week that a crisis was brewing in Kabul and would coincide with a visit there by Kerry, Clinton dispatched Richard C Holbrooke, the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, to the senator's Georgetown townhouse to brief him about the situation and ask for his help.
On Friday evening, when Kerry was dining in Kabul with US troops, the US ambassador, General Karl W Eikenberry, warned him that Karzai was threatening to denounce the election audit.
Alarmed that this would plunge Afghanistan into paralysis, Eikenberry asked Kerry to go to the palace that night. By Kerry's account, what followed were a series of meetings over the next four days.
"We worked through the risks, we worked through the stakes," Kerry said by phone from Dubai, on his way back to Washington. "He was patient, he was searching for answers."
Clinton also spoke to Karzai for 40 minutes on Friday, during which complained he could never be a legitimate leader if the ballots of 1.3 million of his Pashtun supporters were disqualified. Clinton, no stranger to bitter disappointment at the polls, told him she sympathized with his plight, according to officials with knowledge of the conversation.
But she argued that if Karzai ran in a runoff and prevailed, which she and other American officials believe he would, that would be the surest way for him to claim legitimacy.
Brown spoke with Karzai three times, European diplomats said, adding his voice to the pressure. "He made clear that Karzai just had accept," the results of the international election commission, one diplomat said, or he "would no longer be a partner of the West."
Karzai's concession was a critical first step toward creating a credible Afghan government, coming after heavy pressure from European and U.S. officials, including veiled threats that his actions could affect pending decisions about troops levels, according to one U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the matter.
But diplomats immediately questioned whether a new vote could be organized before the announced date of November 7, and whether a second round of balloting would have more security or less fraud than the first, in which nearly a quarter of ballots were thrown out by international auditors. "There are huge constraints to delivering in the second round," said one Western official. "Can you deliver a result that is any different from the one we've already got?"
Diplomats said the efforts to get the two men to join forces would now intensify. Abdullah has hinted he would be open to negotiate, but Karzai, at a news conference here on Tuesday, seemed to rule it out.
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Yet officials said that if there was a deal it would likely involve Abdullah conceding to Karzai, in return for a major role in overhauling Afghanistan's Constitution to give the president less power.
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Karzai seemed to dismiss any fraud, saying of the disqualified votes: "The voters are not to blame. Why their votes were disrespected, should be thoroughly investigated. But it is not the right time to discuss this."
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After Karzai's complaints of foreign interference, the administration is also determined not to appear to meddle.
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As it became clear that international auditors would invalidate enough votes to push Karzai below the threshold for a runoff, the US efforts to persuade the president that he had not won the election outright were extraordinary.
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In one personal moment during a weekend of long dinners and walks in the garden of the sprawling, heavily fortified presidential palace in Kabul, Kerry recounted his experience as the Democratic nominee in the 2004 presidential election, including the lingering questions about ballots cast in Ohio that helped decide the election against him. But the senator accepted his defeat and moved on, he said. Now, he told Karzai, it was his turn to do the same.
"I told him, 'sometimes there are tough things,' " Kerry said in an interview on Tuesday.
A senior administration official described the international pressure on Karzai as a "full court press" that also included not-so-subtle threats delivered by telephone to Karzai's defense minister, General Abdul Rahim Wardak.
General James L Jones, the national security adviser, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates both called Wardak to press him to convince Karzai to concede, a senior administration official said.
"Wardak wants more American troops," said this official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing private conversations. "They both told Wardak that this would affect the decision-making process on the troops."
At times the Obama administration officials seemed at odds over how to deal with Karzai's recalcitrance. On Sunday, the White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, said Obama would not make a decision on troops until the political uncertainty in Afghanistan lifted. On Tuesday, Gates said the United States could not wait for that.
Sensing last week that a crisis was brewing in Kabul and would coincide with a visit there by Kerry, Clinton dispatched Richard C Holbrooke, the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, to the senator's Georgetown townhouse to brief him about the situation and ask for his help.
On Friday evening, when Kerry was dining in Kabul with US troops, the US ambassador, General Karl W Eikenberry, warned him that Karzai was threatening to denounce the election audit.
Alarmed that this would plunge Afghanistan into paralysis, Eikenberry asked Kerry to go to the palace that night. By Kerry's account, what followed were a series of meetings over the next four days.
"We worked through the risks, we worked through the stakes," Kerry said by phone from Dubai, on his way back to Washington. "He was patient, he was searching for answers."
Clinton also spoke to Karzai for 40 minutes on Friday, during which complained he could never be a legitimate leader if the ballots of 1.3 million of his Pashtun supporters were disqualified. Clinton, no stranger to bitter disappointment at the polls, told him she sympathized with his plight, according to officials with knowledge of the conversation.
But she argued that if Karzai ran in a runoff and prevailed, which she and other American officials believe he would, that would be the surest way for him to claim legitimacy.
Brown spoke with Karzai three times, European diplomats said, adding his voice to the pressure. "He made clear that Karzai just had accept," the results of the international election commission, one diplomat said, or he "would no longer be a partner of the West."
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