Geneva:
A majority of weather forecasting models indicate that an El Nino weather phenomenon may develop around the middle of the year, but it is too early to assess its likely strength, the UN World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday.
El Nino, characterised by unusually warm surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, has a significant impact on climate in many parts of the world and a warming influence on global temperatures, the WMO said.
"Model forecasts indicate a fairly large potential for an El Nino, most likely by the end of the second quarter of 2014," the WMO said.
The WMO statement follows predictions by several national forecasters, including the US, Japanese and Australian weather bureaus, that an El Nino event was likely within months.
"For the June to August period, approximately two-thirds of the models surveyed predict that El Nino thresholds will be reached, while the remaining models predict a continuation of neutral conditions. A few models predict an earlier El Nino onset, such as in May."
The WMO said none of the climate models surveyed suggested there would be a La Nina event - the opposite of El Nino, which is associated with cooling - in 2014.
El Nino conditions could affect commodity prices and are likely to be blamed for extreme weather events. The worst El Nino on record in 1997/98 was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river that killed more than 1,500 people.
El Nino, characterised by unusually warm surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, has a significant impact on climate in many parts of the world and a warming influence on global temperatures, the WMO said.
"Model forecasts indicate a fairly large potential for an El Nino, most likely by the end of the second quarter of 2014," the WMO said.
The WMO statement follows predictions by several national forecasters, including the US, Japanese and Australian weather bureaus, that an El Nino event was likely within months.
"For the June to August period, approximately two-thirds of the models surveyed predict that El Nino thresholds will be reached, while the remaining models predict a continuation of neutral conditions. A few models predict an earlier El Nino onset, such as in May."
The WMO said none of the climate models surveyed suggested there would be a La Nina event - the opposite of El Nino, which is associated with cooling - in 2014.
El Nino conditions could affect commodity prices and are likely to be blamed for extreme weather events. The worst El Nino on record in 1997/98 was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river that killed more than 1,500 people.
© Thomson Reuters 2014
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