A 1000X improvement in rocket and spacecraft technology can vastly bring down the cost of building a city on Mars, Elon Musk has said on social media, responding to a user's post.
On Monday, X user @WholeMarsBlog posted a graphic explaining the cost of launching to low earth orbit. It said, “Today, launching a spacecraft is 10x cheaper than it was a decade ago.”
They captioned it “When Elon Musk enters an industry…”
In response, Elon Musk shared a long explainer with a cost breakdown and possible resolution. He pointed out that recent “US Mars missions have had a cost per ton of useful load to the surface of Mars of about $1B. Moreover, it has become more, not less, expensive over time!”
The increased cost acts as a hurdle in making life on Mars a reality. “To build a city on Mars that can grow by itself likely requires at least a million tons of equipment, which would therefore require >$1000 trillion, an obviously impossible number, given that US GDP is only $29T,” he added.
However, there is a solution. If rocket technology can be improved by 1000 times, the cost of becoming sustainably multiplanetary would drop to $1 trillion. And if this could be spread over 40 years, the cost would translate to less than $25 billion annually
“At that cost, it becomes possible to make life multiplanetary, ensuring the long-term survival of life as we know it, without materially affecting people's standard of living on Earth,” he added.
Musk mentioned SpaceX's Starship, designed to achieve over 1,000X improvement over existing systems. “Especially after yesterday's booster catch and precise ocean landing of the ship, I am now convinced that it can work,” he said.
On Sunday, SpaceX's Starship had its fifth test flight. Starship is referred to as the most powerful launch system ever developed, with the capacity to carry up to 100 people on long-duration, interplanetary flights.
The Starship's design demonstrates reusability, a crucial factor in reducing costs.
“Building cities on Mars will require affordable delivery of significant quantities of cargo and crew. The fully reusable Starship system uses on-orbit propellent transfer to enable the transport of up to 100 people to Mars or other distant destinations,” explains SpaceX.
