The Paris Olympic Games will be one of the most high-risk in history owing to a combination of internal strife within France and heightened global geopolitical tensions.
France is grappling with deep internal divisions: the country's volatile political climate and the potential for demonstrations or violence pose significant challenges for organisers.
The current global geopolitical landscape, marked by heightened tensions between major powers, further amplifies the security threats. These Olympics could serve as a potential target for state-sponsored actors seeking to exploit the event for their own agendas.
In response to these elevated threats, organisers are implementing unprecedented security measures, including deploying a record number of security personnel.
About 30,000 police, increasing to a record 45,000 at peak times, will work on the four-week Olympics and Paralympics across the Ile-de-France region covering Paris. They will be supplemented with police forces from across Europe to bolster security efforts.
Islamist Terror
A significant concern is the threat posed by Islamist terrorist networks.
Previous attacks on sporting and cultural events, combined with reports of foiled attempts by French authorities, underline this risk.
The escalation of the Israeli-Hamas conflict following the October 7, 2023, terror attack exacerbates this danger. Islamist terrorists may exploit the situation to position themselves as defenders of Palestinians and Muslims, targeting not just Israel but also Western countries that support Israel.
Daesh (ISIS) emerges as a primary suspect, especially since it operates as an umbrella network offering justification, inspiration and identity to lone actors and small cells operating in its name.
The possibility of Hamas conducting operations on European soil, as evidenced by arrests in Denmark and Germany, complicates the landscape.
Historically, Hamas has distanced itself from international Islamist terrorist networks such as Daesh and Al Qaeda, focusing on Israel. However, the dynamics have shifted post-October 7, with the conflict being framed as a broader Arab and Muslim cause against a morally corrupt West supporting Israel.
This alignment could potentially lead to cooperation between Hamas and Daesh.The Munich 1972 Olympics serve as a tragic reminder of the vulnerability of such events. The infiltration of the Olympic Village, the killing of Israeli athletes, and the taking of hostages by Black September highlight the dangers.
The anti-Semitic atmosphere in Europe, coupled with past rhetoric justifying attacks on Israelis, suggests Israeli athletes and fans could be at heightened risk during the Paris Games.
Deadly Threats
Hostage-taking, suicide bombings, and planted explosives are among the potential threats.
Although suicide bombings have become less common in Europe, they remain a possibility. The complexity of monitoring and gathering intelligence requires international cooperation to thwart such attacks.
The recent attacks by ISIS-affiliated militants in Moscow demonstrate the deadly potential of shooting sprees in crowded areas, while France's experience with knife and vehicle attacks adds another layer of concern.
The worst-case scenario involves multiple, simultaneous attacks across various locations, employing diverse methods and targets, extending beyond athletic venues to include churches and synagogues.
What Motivates A Terrorist?
The threat landscape is further complicated by the diverse pathways to radicalisation and the varied motivations that drive individuals to violence.
Extremists draw inspiration from a range of ideologies, and their motivations may be personal, social, or political. That's also because the Olympics provide an attractive high-profile platform for extremist groups and individuals seeking to carry out attacks.
Alt-right extremism is another significant threat. On July 17, French anti-terror police detained an alleged neo-Nazi sympathiser suspected of wanting to target the Olympic torch relay.
Beyond Paris
Social media plays a crucial role in amplifying extremist narratives and providing a platform for radicalisation.
The interconnectedness of the digital world means that even attacks far from Paris, such as at a public viewing event, could have a significant impact on the Games.
But security considerations extend beyond the immediate vicinity of Olympic venues, encompassing all media-related and public events associated with the games. The global reach of the Olympics means that any security breach, regardless of location, could have far-reaching consequences.
The spirit of the Olympics lies in peaceful competition, reminiscent of their ancient Greek origins. The 2024 Paris Olympics present a unique set of security challenges, requiring a comprehensive and multifaceted approach that addresses both internal and external threats.
International cooperation, intelligence gathering, and a thorough understanding of the evolving threat landscape are crucial for safeguarding athletes, spectators, and the public.
Marco Lombardi, director of ITSTIME research centre, is full professor at the Catholic University of Sacred Heart, where he teaches crisis management and risk communication, mass communication theory, sociology, intelligence and counter terrorism and security policies. He is member of the Governmental Commission on Counter Radicalisation and of the Strategic Policy Committee of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
Maria Alvanou is a Criminologist (International Research Doctorate in Criminology-University of Trento) with the Italian Team for Security, Terroristic Issues & Managing Emergencies (ITSTIME) at the Catholic University of Sacred Heart. Her doctoral research on Palestinian female suicide bombers during the second Intifada included fieldwork in Israel. She has been a member of the RAN and has taught at several law enforcement and military schools.
Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info.
