South Korean authorities have warned that the country's record-low fertility rate will fall to new depths, worsening its demographic crisis. According to CNN, the country's statistical office said on Thursday that the total birth rate, the number of births from a woman in her lifetime, is expected to drop from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.65 in 2025. In worst case scenario, the birth rate could fall to as low as 0.59 in 2026, Statistics Korea further said. Authorities say South Korea's overall population is expected to plummet to levels not seen since the 1970s.
The birth rate is expected to gradually come back to 1.08 in 2072, but that too will be far below the 2.1 births per woman level needed to maintain a stable population in the absence of immigration.
Other countries are also facing ageing population, but the impact is countered by immigration. The situation is stark in South Korea and China because they have avoided mass immigration to solve their working age population issues.
South Korea's total population is expected to drop from 51.75 million in 2024 to 36.22 million, a level not seen since 1977, according to the statistics office.
The low fertility rate and ageing population will also cast a shadow on South Korea's national security as less and less men will be available to join the military.
Earlier this month, South Korea's finance minister nominee Choi Sang-mak compared the dangers of the country's depleting birth rate to the iceberg that sank the Titanic. He said it's already too late to reverse the trend by simple measures.
South Korea's birth rate has been falling since 2015 and it recorded more deaths than births for the first time in 2020, a trend that has continued since.
