Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations and Former National Security Advisor of the US, John Bolton on Wednesday said that while he was the NSA during Trump's previous term as President, trade and tariffs dominated Indo-US relations and Trump and PM Modi's conversations. But, hoped that it would be different now.
Reacting over the phone call between PM Modi and Trump's phone call after the election, Bolton said, "Well, that's good news, good for the Prime Minister."
"I think the relationship between the countries is strong and growing, and I think that's a very good thing. I think the Asian security QUAD is a very important vehicle for key countries with interest in the region, Japan, India, Australia, the US. And I'd like to see in a second Trump term that that QUAD arrangement grow. In his first term, unfortunately, we could only ever get Trump to talk about tariff issues and trade issues, which dominated the bilateral conversations between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump and in the one quad meeting that took place when I was there dominated that too. But this is a very important bilateral relationship. Trump does, I believe, have a good personal relationship with the Prime Minister. In Trump's view, a good personal relationship between the two leaders means that the two countries have good relations. Unfortunately, the world is more complicated than that. But I think it should be a high priority of American diplomacy to work through the different problems that exist in the bilateral relationship. The question of India's historic relationship with the Russian military and sophisticated weapons because of the common threat posed by China. And it will take time, as in any complex relationship, to resolve the issues. But I think it should be a high priority," he said.
Bolton voiced concern over the fact that US President-elect Donald Trump's victory may adversely impact the world's economy due to his decision to impose high tariffs on imports.
While speaking to ANI on Wednesday, Bolton said that Trump's second term would be as problematic as the first term.
"I was disappointed with both candidates. I didn't vote for either one of them, so I'm not wildly enthusiastic about Trump's winning, but it was a clear victory and it was accompanied by Republican gaining control of the Senate and likely keeping a control over the House. So it will be a strong start, I think, for a Trump administration. In international terms, I think it's going to be the same problematic administration it was for much of the first term, beginning with the threat that Trump has made during the campaign to raise tariffs on all imports into the United States from wherever they may come in the world to 10 per cent, 20 per cent, who knows what the last number will be, which could significantly impact the American economy in a very negative way and really the rest of the world's too," he said.
Bolton, while speaking about Trump's stance on China, said that Trump blamed China for his defeat in the 2020 Presidential elections. He believed that COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in China, was the reason behind his defeat. However, if China and Russia decide to cooperate with Trump, he may go ahead with them.
"During the campaign, he took a very tough rhetorical line against China, which I attribute to the fact that he believes that it was the COVID pandemic and the economic consequences of COVID that led to his defeat in 2020. And COVID obviously originated in China, so he blames China for it fairly or unfairly. Of course, he lost the election for a number of reasons. He won't really admit that. He says it's stolen, but he believes his political troubles in 2020 stemmed in large part from COVID. So negative on China. But again, up to the point when I think if Xi Jinping were to call Trump as part of the campaign of foreign leaders to call him on day one or day two after the election to congratulate him and say, look, Donald, I'm so glad you're back in office. Let's get together. Let's restart our negotiations and let's get the biggest trade deal in history. I think Trump would go along with it. I think Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin know how to play Trump. And I think that's what they're considering how to do in their respective capitals," he said.
Talking about whether this is the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States as Trump is be the only second to former US President Cleveland who did two non-consecutive terms in the White House, Bolton acknowledged that this was a huge event.
"Well, it's certainly a huge comeback. I don't think anybody can deny that, whether it was bigger than Richard Nixon's comeback when he was defeated in 1960, lost as the governor candidate for governor of California in 1962, and then came back in 1968 to win the nomination, or whether it's bigger than Grover Cleveland at the end of the 19th century, who really knows? But it's a significant comeback. I think on that point, there's no denying," he said.
When asked about how Trump would deal with the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza war, Bolton contemplated that Trump would want to clear things off the table, giving little thought to the repercussions.
"Well, he doesn't really know how he's going to resolve them. I think what he really wants to do is simply get them off the table. He views them as Biden's wars. He has also said in his campaign rallies, if he had been president, the wars never would have taken place. Of course, that kind of statement is neither provable nor disprovable. But he just wants the Ukraine war to be over. He doesn't really care what the end result is. I think that's very troubling from the Ukraine perspective. And I understand that there was a conversation a few hours ago between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Donald Trump. I suspect Trump said something to him like, do what you need to do on Iran and its nuclear weapons program, but get this thing resolved by January 20, which I don't think can happen. But I suspect that's what they said. And I would just, if I could make one point about the fact that Netanyahu was the first foreign leader, apparently, to speak with Trump since the election," he said.
Speaking to ANI about the situation in Iran, Bolton said that it would be good if the Supreme leader of Iran speaks with Trump in person.
"I expect it will be the same, at least in the short term, because again, he views the Iran nuclear deal as a, the 2015 deal is something that the Obama administration came up with and that was the principal reason he wanted to get out of it. I think there were a lot of important strategic reasons to get out of it, but we got out of it. And I think he sees Biden's efforts to go back into the deal as badly flawed, which they are. And I think he'll reject it. But I also don't put it beyond Trump if at some point the Iranians reached out to try and have a negotiation. He came very close in 2019 to meeting with then Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif. And if the Iranians were clever enough, if that regime was clever enough, which I don't think it is, they too would reach out and say, we should have the Supreme Leader meet with President Trump in Geneva or Vienna or someplace like that," he said.
Speculating on the steps that Trump might take to curb illegal immigration, which was his strong point in campaign, Bolton said that in his previous term, Trump failed at achieving this. But, as they seem to be better prepared now, Trump might put forth some measures after he gets sworn in on January 20, 2025.
"Well, he has said repeatedly in this campaign that he would try and cut off the flow of illegal immigrants across the border and have mass deportation programs for illegal immigrants who are already in the country. Now, he came close to saying that in the 2016 election. But at the beginning of his administration in 2017, they stumbled very badly on some early executive orders and other efforts to close the border. I don't think they'll make those same mistakes again. They may make other mistakes, but I think the odds point to them being better prepared this time so that promptly after Trump is sworn in on January 20, they can put some of these immigration decisions into play immediately," he said.
Bolton warned that the Trump term could end up being extremly chaotic.
"Well, buckle up. I think it's going to be chaotic like it was in the first term. Trump does not have a philosophy or policy in the sense we normally understand that his decisions are very transactional and he has trouble distinguishing between his own interest and the national interest. I think that was evident in the first term. I think it would be even more evident in a second term," he said.
With his comprehensive victory all eyes will now be on who Trump picks to serve in his cabinet.
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