TikTok, Escalate To De-Escalate In Ukraine: US Journalist On Trump 2.0 At Davos

In a special episode of Left, Right and Centre broadcast live from the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, American journalist Ben Smith discussed a wide range of issues, from US President Donald Trump's move to 'save' TikTok in the US to the war in Ukraine and Gaza.

With the focus of the world very much on what is taking place in the US, and particularly Mr Trump's public relations win with 'saving' TikTok as one of his first key decisions, Mr Smith said both the Democrats and Republicans believed TikTok was a national security threat, but failed to see that banning it would be an unpopular move.

"American politicians of both parties believe it [TikTok] is a national security threat, and passed a law that people did not quite pay that much attention to, to take it away, and now have realised that that is an incredibly unpopular thing to do. Politicians do not like doing unpopular things," Mr Smith, co-founder and editor-in-chief of the news website Semafor, told NDTV.

"Trump decided it would be more popular to save TikTok, and so he has saved it in some sense, taken credit for it, created, in a moment, a very nice situation for himself, where this app that millions of Americans love puts up a little thing that says, 'thank you, President Trump, for saving us'. I mean that is great messaging. It has put him in a strange position though, where it has already been banned in the US," Mr Smith said.

He said the Chinese government may not care about a TikTok ban in the US "one way or the other."

"If America wants to ban it and look insane, go ahead and do that and create lots of domestic conflict - this is from the Chinese perspective," Mr Smith said.

On Ukraine And Gaza

On the possible course of action Mr Trump may take to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Mr Smith said the new US President may feel confident of "his force of will" after having successfully pushed through a ceasefire in Gaza, "but this [Ukraine] is a very different situation."

"He [Mr Trump] was able to force through a ceasefire in Gaza, and I think he obviously believes that his force of will, his political momentum can really push people to the table. But this is a very different situation where Russia feels that they are winning, and I think the Europeans, the United States, Ukrainians are now eager to reach a peace settlement, and that is a difficult negotiating position. The Trump administration has been lowering expectations for an immediate settlement," Mr Smith said.

He cautioned against seeing Mr Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as leaders who can work together.

"No, there is a long history of American presidents sort of imagining that they have capital with Vladimir Putin, starting with George W Bush, and then finding that they do not. I think Trump's style is much more, as the Russians say, escalate to de-escalate. I think that he will likely threaten an escalated American presence, more arms shipments, more support for Ukrainians, unless the Russians come to the table," Mr Smith said.

Mass Deportations

In Trump 1.0, building a wall along the US-Mexico border and deporting undocumented immigrants had taken centrestage. Many leaders and analysts have predicted a similar policy in Trump 2.0.

Mr Smith said the US President is putting in place executive orders that will give him more leeway to militarise the border to not accept asylum claims.

"But the reality is that the situation on the ground in the last year has shifted dramatically. [Joe] Biden responding belatedly to popular opinion really has much, much diminished border crossings. The Mexican government has also made it much harder to cross the border. And I think Trump is likely to do some very theatrical things, likely in Chicago, where they're going to do some raids, arrest some illegal immigrants with outstanding deportation orders," Mr Smith said. "That is, by the way, a thing that the US government has been doing regularly for decades."

He said there will be TV cameras, "producing a real show for us."

"A lot of the immigration issue is about messaging and communications. The signal that people are not welcome means that some people won't come, means that some people who do have a choice will go elsewhere," Mr Smith said.

The five-day meeting at Davos that began today is exploring how to relaunch growth, harness new technologies and strengthen social and economic resilience, according to the World Economic Forum. The global meeting is seeing participation by nearly 3,000 leaders from over 130 countries, including 350 governmental leaders.

India's participation at Davos aims to strengthen partnerships, attract investment, and position the country as a global leader in sustainable development and technological innovation. India sent five Union ministers, three chief ministers, and ministers from several other states to the WEF this time.