For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a clear victory, a narrow loss or a contested result - is risky.
Istanbul:
Voters in Turkey will go to the polls on April 16 to decide on the referendum that would grant President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expanded powers. With Erdogan supporters seeing a chance to cement his place as modern Turkey's most important leader while his opponents fear an even greater centralisation of powers, polls suggest the vote will be close.
EU officials see all outcomes - whether a clear victory for Erdogan, a narrow loss or a contested result - as risky.
Here are key dates since Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power:
AKP takes over
The Islamic-rooted AKP scores its first electoral victory on November 3, 2002 after years of political instability and an unprecedented financial crisis. The victory sets off alarm bells in the secular establishment. Its leader Mr Erdogan becomes prime minister in March 2003.
EU accession talks
From 2002 to 2004, Ankara adopts a broad range of democratic reforms, including allowing Kurdish-language broadcasts on public television and abolishing the death penalty. On October 3, 2005, it begins accession talks with the European Union (EU). However, the EU process has since stalled.
Presidential breakthrough
On August 28, 2007, lawmakers elect foreign minister Abdullah Gul as president, the first time an Islamic-rooted candidate is named to the country's highest office.
His victory is seen as one for the AKP over lay factions backed by the army, and the new government progressively brings the army to heel. But it causes shudders in the secular establishment as Gul's wife wears the Islamic headscarf.
Ankara backs Syrian rebels
In 2011, Turkey sides with majority Sunni rebels in neighbouring Syria who have launched a revolt against the government of Bashar al-Assad.
Ankara has since taken in some 2.9 million Syrian refugees.
Anti-Erdogan protests
On May 31, 2013, security forces crack down on demonstrators who staged a rally against government plans to redevelop a park near Istanbul's Taksim square. The protest quickly grows into nationwide demonstrations against Erdogan but peter out after a month.
Erdogan is elected president on August 10, 2014 with 52 percent of a vote held for the first time by universal suffrage. Ever since, he has argued that the position requires reinforced powers.
Kurdish rebellion resumes
In July 2015, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) breaks a unilateral ceasefire with the Turkish army and fighting resumes in an insurgency that has left tens of thousands dead in over three decades.
Repeated attacks attributed to Kurdish militants or the ISIS group have kept Turkey on edge ever since.
Coup attempt, then purges
Early on July 16, 2016 a failed coup by members in the army kills 249, not including the plotters. Erdogan blames the coup on exiled US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen.
Since then more than 113,000 people are fired, suspended from their jobs, or detained. The government imposes control over the army whose political influence ebbs.
Making up with Moscow
Erdogan meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 9, 2016 to cement relations with one of the main backers of Assad's regime in Syria. The meeting also helps restore trust after Turkey shot down a Russian jet over the Syrian-Turkish border in late 2015.
Two weeks later, Turkey launches a major military operation in northern Syria, driving Islamic State group fighters from several cities.
Another key target for Turkey is Kurdish militia groups which Ankara considers allies of PKK separatists.
Tensions with EU
In March 2017, several European countries cancel rallies by Turkish ministers and bar its politicians from campaigning in favour of a 'Yes' in the April 16 referendum. A war of words ensues, with Erdogan repeatedly accusing Germany and the Netherlands in particular of behaving like "Nazis".
Support for US strikes
On April 4 Erdogan denounces a suspected chemical attack that killed at least 86 civilians in rebel-held northwestern Syria, calling Assad "a murderer". Three days later Turkey welcomes a US missile strike on a Syrian regime airbase in retaliation for the attack.
EU officials see all outcomes - whether a clear victory for Erdogan, a narrow loss or a contested result - as risky.
Here are key dates since Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power:
AKP takes over
The Islamic-rooted AKP scores its first electoral victory on November 3, 2002 after years of political instability and an unprecedented financial crisis. The victory sets off alarm bells in the secular establishment. Its leader Mr Erdogan becomes prime minister in March 2003.
EU accession talks
From 2002 to 2004, Ankara adopts a broad range of democratic reforms, including allowing Kurdish-language broadcasts on public television and abolishing the death penalty. On October 3, 2005, it begins accession talks with the European Union (EU). However, the EU process has since stalled.
Presidential breakthrough
On August 28, 2007, lawmakers elect foreign minister Abdullah Gul as president, the first time an Islamic-rooted candidate is named to the country's highest office.
His victory is seen as one for the AKP over lay factions backed by the army, and the new government progressively brings the army to heel. But it causes shudders in the secular establishment as Gul's wife wears the Islamic headscarf.
Ankara backs Syrian rebels
In 2011, Turkey sides with majority Sunni rebels in neighbouring Syria who have launched a revolt against the government of Bashar al-Assad.
Ankara has since taken in some 2.9 million Syrian refugees.
Anti-Erdogan protests
On May 31, 2013, security forces crack down on demonstrators who staged a rally against government plans to redevelop a park near Istanbul's Taksim square. The protest quickly grows into nationwide demonstrations against Erdogan but peter out after a month.
Erdogan is elected president on August 10, 2014 with 52 percent of a vote held for the first time by universal suffrage. Ever since, he has argued that the position requires reinforced powers.
Kurdish rebellion resumes
In July 2015, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) breaks a unilateral ceasefire with the Turkish army and fighting resumes in an insurgency that has left tens of thousands dead in over three decades.
Repeated attacks attributed to Kurdish militants or the ISIS group have kept Turkey on edge ever since.
Coup attempt, then purges
Early on July 16, 2016 a failed coup by members in the army kills 249, not including the plotters. Erdogan blames the coup on exiled US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen.
Since then more than 113,000 people are fired, suspended from their jobs, or detained. The government imposes control over the army whose political influence ebbs.
Making up with Moscow
Erdogan meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 9, 2016 to cement relations with one of the main backers of Assad's regime in Syria. The meeting also helps restore trust after Turkey shot down a Russian jet over the Syrian-Turkish border in late 2015.
Two weeks later, Turkey launches a major military operation in northern Syria, driving Islamic State group fighters from several cities.
Another key target for Turkey is Kurdish militia groups which Ankara considers allies of PKK separatists.
Tensions with EU
In March 2017, several European countries cancel rallies by Turkish ministers and bar its politicians from campaigning in favour of a 'Yes' in the April 16 referendum. A war of words ensues, with Erdogan repeatedly accusing Germany and the Netherlands in particular of behaving like "Nazis".
Support for US strikes
On April 4 Erdogan denounces a suspected chemical attack that killed at least 86 civilians in rebel-held northwestern Syria, calling Assad "a murderer". Three days later Turkey welcomes a US missile strike on a Syrian regime airbase in retaliation for the attack.
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