US-Afghanistan inch closer to troop deal

New Delhi: The hardball negotiations between Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai and the United States over what happens when foreign combat troops leave by December 31, 2014, seem to have inched closer to an agreement.

If there is no agreement, all troops and not just combat personnel could be pulled out. Reports suggest that compromises have been reached on key contentious clauses, one of them being Mr Karzai's insistence that any troops staying on do not enter Afghan homes in raids.

Mr Karzai's spokesperson reportedly told a select group of journalists that a compromise over the possible deal-breaker has been reached after US Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to the Afghan President on Tuesday. A journalist privy to that briefing said that initial Afghan offer was to invite Secretary Kerry to speak to the Loya Jirga (a Grand council of 3,000 Afghan elders) that begins meeting on Thursday in Kabul to convince them.

The Americans, though, reportedly agreed to President Obama writing a letter to the Afghan people expressing his regret for mistakes in the past during US raids that killed Afghan civilians. His apology and assurance of no recurrence of those mistakes is reportedly to be appended to the draft Bilateral Strategic Agreement (BSA) that the Jirga will debate.

US bases for military aid, equipment and training

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Mr Karzai's office has confirmed that Mr Kerry has assured the Afghan head of state that President Obama will give the Afghan people clearly written assurances which will be part of the draft text submitted to the Jirga. The Presidential Office also confirmed that other issue discussed between Secretary Kerry and President Karzai was Afghanistan's security and defence after the April 2014 Presidential polls. So, the agreement, if reached, will allow the US to keep bases and troops in Afghanistan with the quid pro quo being America providing military aid, training and assistance to Afghan security forces post 2014.

Jurisdiction of US crimes

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The other contentious clause is what happens to crimes committed by US troops in Afghanistan? Though it's unclear what compromise, if any, has been reached, the US insists it will not back down on the condition that only its military and civil courts will have complete jurisdiction to try any troops committing crimes. The US had completely withdrawn from Iraq in 2009 when a similar insistence wasn't agreed to. The most infamous incident involving an American soldier in recent times took place in March, 2012 when Staff Sergeant Robert Bales went on a murderous massacre killing 16 civilians and injuring six others in Panjwai district of Kandahar province. The soldier was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole by a jury in Washington in August 2013.

Draft strategic agreement negotiations

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Though the number of US troops that remain (if any) after the drawdown of foreign boots on the ground by December 31, 2014, will be decided by President Obama, the draft BSA (Bilateral Strategic Agreement) being negotiated says. The troops will stay, of course, only if it is signed. The Pentagon has reportedly been plugging for between 10,000-15,000 foreign troops to stay on for training, assistance and counter-terrorism operations. A draft BSA in the process of being negotiated states, "Confirming the recognition in the Strategic Partnership Agreement that cooperation between the Parties is based on mutual respect and shared interests - most notably, a common desire for peace and to strengthen collective efforts to achieve a region that is economically integrated, and no longer a safe haven for al-Qaeda and its affiliates." It acknowledges, "that ISAF's mission will be concluded by the end of 2014 and that the close partnership will continue beyond the end of the transition period including through NATO and Afghanistan's mutual commitment to work to establish a new NATO-led Mission to train, advise, and assist the Afghan National Security Forces, and noting here that such a mission will also need to be provided with the necessary authorities, status, arrangements, and legal basis.'  The document makes it clear negotiations are on for troops to stay till 2024 and beyond if necessary. Article 28 states, 'This Agreement shall enter into force on January 1, 2015, after the Parties notify one another through diplomatic channels of the completion of their respective internal legal requirements necessary for the entry into force of this Agreement. It shall remain in force until the end of 2024 and beyond."

India watches keenly

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The 25-page document along with US President Barack Obama's letter of regret is reportedly going to be placed before the Loya Jirga for debate starting Thursday. Analysts are divided on whether the elders will reject the clause allowing US troops to conduct raids inside Afghan homes and/or insist that American troops, accused of crimes, be tried in Afghan courts or whether the Jirga is just a rubber-stamp for President Karzai. It also has to get Afghan Parliament's as well as Congressional approval. Worried about the ramifications for Indian assets in Afghanistan and terror spilling across Pakistan's border into India, if there is a foreign military vacuum, New Delhi has always pushed for no hasty or complete withdrawal of coalition troops. As regards the strategic agreement between the Americans and Afghans, New Delhi will hope the Dari proverb "no matter how high the mountain is, there's still always a way to the top" rings true.