US Intel Report Finds Iran "Not" Building Nuclear Weapon Despite Strategic Losses

Tulsi Gabbard, United States Director of National Intelligence (DNI), on Tuesday said that the American intelligence community have assessed that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon at the moment, but discussion of nuclearization has increased inside the regime in Tehran. 

"The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003," she said during the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing.

Gabbard, however, added that in the past years, it was seen that there has been "an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus."

"Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons," she added.

The DNI Director, meanwhile, added that the entire impact of renewed sanctions on Iran is still not in effect, but that the "message" has been "certainly heard" by Tehran. 

Earlier in October 2024 also, the United States said it believes that Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon despite Tehran's strategic setbacks, including Israel's killing of Hezbollah leaders and two largely unsuccessful attempts to attack Israel.

US Intelligence Report

The DNI also released the intelligence community's annual threat assessment in conjunction with the hearing. The report predicted that Iran will try to leverage its robust missile capability and expanded nuclear program, and its diplomatic outreach to regional states and US rivals to bolster its regional influence and ensure regime survival. 

However, regional and domestic challenges, most immediately tensions with Israel, are seriously testing Iran's ambitions and capabilities, it added,

"The IC assesses Iran's prospects for reconstituting force losses and posing a credible deterrent, particularly to Israeli actions, are dim in the near-term," the report continues.

It suggested that Tehran will continue its efforts to counter Israel and press the United States to leave the region by aiding and arming its loose consortium of like-minded terrorists, known as the "Axis of Resistance." 

The report also noted that Iranian investment in its military has been a key plank of its efforts to confront diverse threats and try to deter and defend against an attack by the United States or Israel. Iran will also continue to directly threaten US persons globally and remains committed to its decade-long effort to develop surrogate networks inside the United States, it added.

The report also mentioned that Tehran intends for its expanding relationships with other key US adversaries and the Global South to mitigate America's efforts to isolate the regime and blunt the impact of Western sanctions. "Tehran's diplomatic efforts-including at times outreach to Europe-are likely to continue with varying degrees of success," it said. 

It, however, added that Iranian political and economic struggles could be fodder for renewed domestic political unrest and protest inside Iran, unless Iran is granted sanctions relief.

The report also found that Russia is developing a new satellite meant to carry a nuclear weapon, which could have "devastating consequences" for the US and the world.