A Sudanese woman casts her ballot at
a voting station in Khartoum on June 5. (AFP)
With Sudan barely 100 days away from a referendum that is likely to split the country and that could even reignite a war, the Obama administration has begun a multifront diplomatic offensive built around incentives to keep Sudan from obstructing the vote.
On Sunday, the administration's special envoy to Sudan, Major General Scott Gration, met with Sudanese officials in the north and south, laying out a timetable for steps the United States is willing to take, starting with the approval of the sale of irrigation and other agricultural equipment to Sudan. The referendum on the independence of southern Sudan is scheduled for January 9.
"We are really now down to make or break," General Gration said in a telephone interview from Juba, the regional capital of southern Sudan. "We've reached a point where progress is critical. Without significant progress in the next days and weeks, things could be at risk."
The package of American incentives goes all the way to normalization of relations, debt relief, the lifting of sanctions and the removal of Sudan from the United States' list of state sponsors of terrorism -- though these steps would require an end to the violence in Darfur and full acceptance of an independent southern Sudan, which many experts say is wishful thinking.
Indeed, many fear that the referendum -- if it happens as planned -- would tip Sudan back into the strife that afflicted it for more than two decades and that left two million people dead. Just the logistical challenges of holding the vote are daunting, given the dire poverty and lack of roads in the south.
On September 24, President Obama plans to attend a high-level meeting on Sudan at the United Nations, convened by Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. The White House took the unusual step of publicizing Mr. Obama's attendance two weeks in advance, an administration official said, to attract other influential participants and to shine a spotlight on the precarious situation.
Susan E. Rice, the American ambassador to the United Nations and an advocate of a tough approach toward the Sudanese government, said Mr. Obama would try to mobilize international support and send a message that "we are with the people of southern Sudan, if they make the choice" to break away.
The administration's heightened concern was dramatised last week by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who described the referendum as a "ticking time bomb of enormous consequence."
Mrs. Clinton said that it was inevitable that the southern Sudanese would vote to secede and that this would raise "intractable problems," because the bulk of Sudan's oil reserves are in the south.
"If you're in the north, and all of a sudden you think a line's going to be drawn and you're going to lose 80 percent of the oil revenues, you're not a very enthusiastic participant," Mrs. Clinton said. "What are the deals that can possibly be made that will limit the potential of violence?"
There is no simple answer to that question, the experts said. And even if there were, the United States has limited leverage to press either side, given that the Obama administration, preoccupied by Afghanistan and domestic issues, is reluctant to intervene directly in Sudan.
"Our ability to direct the parties is just an illusion," said Andrew S. Natsios, a special envoy to Sudan during the Bush administration who teaches at Georgetown University. "But we can facilitate the process by proposing different or alternative ways of approaching things."
The administration has sent a seasoned diplomat, Princeton N. Lyman, to help the two sides work out deals on issues like oil. The north will have to accept a declining share of revenue over time, General Gration said, but it has some leverage: the pipeline that carries oil to the Red Sea runs through the north.
Mr. Lyman, a former ambassador to South Africa and Nigeria, is part of a beefed-up diplomatic presence that doubles the size of the American mission in Juba to 50 people.
Advocacy groups, which have harshly criticized the administration's policy and especially the role of General Gration, seem cheered by the activity, the most since the Bush administration helped broker the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the civil war. Mr. Lyman's arrival, some said, reflects a realistic approach to avoiding another war.
"The hope of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was to really transform Sudan as a state," said John Norris, the executive director of Enough, an antigenocide project. "Now they're focusing on the most base, backroom deals that can keep the elites on both sides well fed."
The administration's policy debates over Sudan have often been intense. General Gration has advocated working with the governing National Congress Party of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. But Ambassador Rice has argued for a more confrontational approach to Mr. Bashir, who is under indictment for crimes against humanity for his role in the genocide in Darfur.
Both officials said they differed on tactics rather than underlying strategy. And Ms. Rice said she was satisfied that there were enough sticks if the carrots failed to work. Among other things, the administration is prepared to freeze the assets of Sudanese leaders and expand restrictions on their travel. "There's virtually nothing, aside from a handful of agricultural licenses, that don't come without conditions," she said.
General Gration, who is on his 20th visit to Sudan, said that in his meetings, no Sudanese official had threatened to hold up the referendum. "But what they say and what they do are two different things," he added.
General Gration has been a controversial figure in the debate on Sudan, and the referendum is likely to be his last major effort as special envoy. Officials said Mr. Obama, with whom he has personal ties, plans to name him as ambassador to Kenya. Administration officials said Mr. Obama had long wanted to post the envoy in Nairobi, where General Gration spent part of his childhood and later helped train the Kenyan air force.
"If the president decides to move me to another job, that's his prerogative," General Gration said when asked about his future. "I'm committed to this job until I'm given a new job."